040
FXUS65 KPUB 222001
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
201 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS AND RATON MESA ON SATURDAY.
- WARMING TREND FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE MOISTURE POSSIBLY MOVING INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS INDICATING
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES, WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE
ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. SAID WAVE IS AIDING IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE WEST SLOPE AND INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES IMAGERY INDICATING SOME STRATUS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS PIKES PEAK
REGION, WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, ALONG WITH CUMULUS BUILDING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE
THE PLAINS BEHIND LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT, WITH DEW PTS MAINLY IN THE
30S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS REFLECTS THAT, WITH MODEST CAPE OF UP TO
250 J/KG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH SOME WEAK CIN STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LEE OF SE MTNS AT THIS TIME.
WITH ONLY MODEST AVAILABLE CAPE, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY, AS
THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT. LATEST HIGHER RES MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AND RATON MESA REGIONS, WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE, SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL.
SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING WAVE.
LESS CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE OFFING FOR SATURDAY, AS DRIER AIR BEHIND
TONIGHT'S PASSING SYSTEM FILTERS IN TO THE REGION. WITH THAT SAID, WILL
SEE MORE ISOLATED, HIGHER BASED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS, OVER
AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY
BE ACROSS THE RATON MESA AND SOUTHERN TIER, WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD OOZE IN FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. IF THE BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER, THERE COULD
BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS, WITH MORE EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND GOOD SHEAR
IN PLACE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING MODEST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATING MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING LATER MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK, AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL SUPPORT A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR SUNDAY, WITH ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON MTN SHOWERS. BY MONDAY,
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING MOISTURE WITHIN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH MUCH MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTNING. BEYOND TUESDAY, MODELS ARE STRUGGLING IN THE DETAILS OF
EJECTING THE WEST COAST ENERGY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES,
WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TIME WILL
TELL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
RELATIVELY QUIET AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER
AND VFR CEILINGS IN PLACE. WEATHER DOES INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING AS SHOWERS, CURRENTLY TO THE WEST OF
THE TERMINALS, SPREAD EAST. WHILE ALS REMAINS ON THE DRIER SIDE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING, A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
IS LIKELY FOR BOTH COS AND PUB AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE TAFS TO
REFLECT THIS. DID NOT LOWER VIS TOO MUCH BUT AM MONITORING
TRENDS AND COULD EASILY SEE NEEDING TO AT LEAST ADD MVFR VIS IN
THESE SHOWERS TO BOTH PUB AND COS. ADDITIONALLY, THE RISK OF
THUNDER LOOKS LOW, AND HAVE EXCLUDED ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
SIMILARLY TO VIS TRENDS, WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE NEED TO ADD AT
LEAST A SMALL WINDOW OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST LATER THIS
EVENING. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST FOR PUB BUT THERE IS MEDIUM
CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS RETURN FOR COS, AND HAVE MAINTAINED
THAT IN THE GRIDS. VFR CEILINGS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER BY EARLY TO MID MORNING.
WINDS ACROSS COS AND PUB WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN,
ESPECIALLY FOR COS. IT DOES LOOK AS IF A TREND BACK TO EAST
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OCCURS FOR PUB LATE TONIGHT THOUGH. WINDS
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS ALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS
QUICKLY INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD, WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
IN SPEEDS AND GUSTS BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WINDS EVENTUALLY
SETTLE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
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