834
FXUS65 KPUB 230511
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1111 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS AND RATON MESA ON SATURDAY.
- WARMING TREND FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE MOISTURE POSSIBLY MOVING INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS INDICATING
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES, WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE
ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. SAID WAVE IS AIDING IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE WEST SLOPE AND INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES IMAGERY INDICATING SOME STRATUS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS PIKES PEAK
REGION, WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, ALONG WITH CUMULUS BUILDING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE
THE PLAINS BEHIND LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT, WITH DEW PTS MAINLY IN THE
30S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS REFLECTS THAT, WITH MODEST CAPE OF UP TO
250 J/KG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH SOME WEAK CIN STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LEE OF SE MTNS AT THIS TIME.
WITH ONLY MODEST AVAILABLE CAPE, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY, AS
THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT. LATEST HIGHER RES MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AND RATON MESA REGIONS, WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE, SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL.
SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING WAVE.
LESS CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE OFFING FOR SATURDAY, AS DRIER AIR BEHIND
TONIGHT'S PASSING SYSTEM FILTERS IN TO THE REGION. WITH THAT SAID, WILL
SEE MORE ISOLATED, HIGHER BASED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS, OVER
AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY
BE ACROSS THE RATON MESA AND SOUTHERN TIER, WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD OOZE IN FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. IF THE BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER, THERE COULD
BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS, WITH MORE EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND GOOD SHEAR
IN PLACE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING MODEST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATING MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING LATER MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK, AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL SUPPORT A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR SUNDAY, WITH ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON MTN SHOWERS. BY MONDAY,
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING MOISTURE WITHIN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH MUCH MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTNING. BEYOND TUESDAY, MODELS ARE STRUGGLING IN THE DETAILS OF
EJECTING THE WEST COAST ENERGY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES,
WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TIME WILL
TELL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
FOR KCOS AND KPUB..MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 12Z. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY AND TO NORTH OF KCOS, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED ON STATION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY
SOUTHEASTERLY FOR SATURDAY AT BOTH STATIONS, WITH OFF AND ON
SCATTERED MIDDLE AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AT EITHER STATION.
FOR KALS..VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH INCREASING WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...EHR/HODANISH
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