580
FXUS65 KPUB 231746
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1146 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER TODAY; A FEW STORMS (POSSIBLY STRONG)
DOWN ALONG THE CO/NM-OK BORDER
- MAINLY DRY AND WARM INTO SUNDAY, THEN INCREASING MOISTURE
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY (WITH MOST OF IT IN THE MTNS)
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIER AND WARMER TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED
STORMS DOWN ALONG THE CO/NM-OK BORDER. SOME STRONGER STORMS WERE
NOTED IN THE HREF GUIDANCE ALONG AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BORDER, BUT
A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANT BE RULED OUT ON THE COLORADO SIDE OF THE
BORDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL, EXPECT TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH LOWER 70S LARGER VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SUNDAY....
STORMS THIS DAY WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FCST AREA. IT WILL BE WARMER
WITH HIGHS REACHING AROUND 90 ACROSS THE WARMEST PART OF THE PLAINS
WITH UPPER 70S VALLEYS.
MONDAY...
THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE AS A ROBUST, ALBEIT SMALL, CLOSED LOW
STARTS TO MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO
ADVECT INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION. OVERALL, TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER OVER THE REGION, BUT WE WILL
LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS. I AM STILL
CONCERNED THAT LIGHTNING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, AND WITH IT BEING
SO DRY IN THE MTNS NEW FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING WILL BE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY.
TUESDAY...
MOISTURE WILL NOTICEABLY INCREASE THIS DAY OVER ALL OF THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DIVIDE, AS NBM GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE HIGH
POPS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
NORTHWEST BY 12 UTC TUE. FAVORABLE LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY, SO LOTS OF STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AND WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP, BUT WE WILL ALSO SEE
QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THIS
DAY. ON THE OTHER HAND WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
STORMS. THIS DAY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.
WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK...
BY MID WEEK THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER NEVADA/UTAH, AND IT IS FCST
TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE LOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY CLOSE BY TO OUR STATE DURING THIS TIME, DRY AIR IS FCST
TO ADVECT IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND DRY AIR IS FCST TO
MOVE UP INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW
THE TEMPS TO WARM UP AND THE PRECIP TO DECREASE. WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW THIS SYSTEM ACTUALLY EVOLVES AS IF THIS SYSTEM TRACKS
ONLY A BIT DIFFERENTLY THEN WE COULD SEE A WETTER SCENARIO. (I.E.,
THE MID LEVELS MAY DRY OUT BUT WE MAY SEE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECT ONTO THE PLAINS AND THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS). TWIT. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCOS, KPUB AND KALS THE NEXT 24 HRS.
SOME CUMULUS BUILD UPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PUSH OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS/VALLEY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING, THOUGH CHANCES FOR -SHRA REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS POINT. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED, BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE UNDER/NEAR ANY WEAK CONVECTION/VIRGA, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WIND NEAR KALS. SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING, WITH WEAK DRAINAGE WINDS DEVELOPING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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