585
FXUS65 KPUB 232032
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
232 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT UPTURN IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS
- DRYING TREND DEVELOPS FROM WED INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH STILL
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS EACH DAY, MAINLY ACROSS
THE PLAINS
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SCATTERED -TSRA DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SERN CO IN
BACA COUNTY, FORCED BY WEAK S/W TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE AND HELPED ALONG BY POCKET OF MODEST INSTABILITY WITH
CAPE IN THE 500-900 J/KG RANGE. FARTHER WEST, JUST SOME
MODERATE CUMULUS SO FAR OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE CAPE IS LESS
THAN 200 J/KG AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE TEENS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN/20S VALLEYS. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, FAR SERN PLAINS CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT INTO
OK BY 00Z AS S/W TROUGH MOVES EAST, THOUGH GUSTY OUTFLOWS
(SOUTH WINDS 35-45 MPH) WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, SOME BRIEF WIND/SPRINKLES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO
EARLY EVENING, THEN ANY ACTIVITY ENDS QUICKLY BY SUNSET WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. CLEARING THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. ON MONDAY, VERY SLIGHT UPTURN IN MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS, COMBINED WITH A 5-10 DEGF
RISE IN SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GENERATE BETTER COVERAGE OF HIGH
TERRAIN CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH DRY LOW LEVELS WILL
AGAIN LIMIT PRECIP TO MOSTLY SPRINKLES/BRIEF SHOWERS. COULD
ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS, FORCED
BY CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS LAS ANIMAS/BACA
COUNTIES, THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND RATHER LOW INSTABILITY (CAPE 300-500 J/KG). MAX
TEMPS MON END UP 5-10 DEGF WARMER AT MOST LOCATIONS, AND A FEW
SPOTS ON THE PLAINS COULD TOUCH 90F.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
ON MON/TUE, WEAKENING UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW AHEAD
OF NEXT STRONG SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST.
COMBINATION OF INCREASED UPWARD MOTION WITH THE LOW, GRADUAL
MOISTENING OF LOW/MID LEVELS AND MODEST INSTABILITY (CAPE
400-800 J/KG) SHOULD GENERATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM BOTH MON AND TUE AFTERNOONS, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY BACK TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, WHERE FORCING SHOULD BE STRONGEST. WHILE QPF VALUES ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE, MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD AT LEAST SEE
A BRIEF SHOWER/STORM BOTH AFTERNOONS, WITH SOME POCKETS OF
RAINFALL UP TO A QUARTER INCH OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MON LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S/90S WIDESPREAD, THEN A
SUBTLE 3-7 DEGF DOWNTURN IN MAXES FORECAST.
MAIN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
PUSH OF DRIER AIR LIMITING CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED
AFTERNOON. ON THE PLAINS, SOME HINTS OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SLOSHING WESTWARD INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR, LEADING TO
A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY, THOUGH DETAILS ON
POSITION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE STILL TOUGH
TO DETERMINE THIS FAR OUT. UPPER LOW THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THU/FRI, WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE S-SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CO. COULD SEE SOME STRONGER
STORMS ON THE PLAINS BOTH DAYS IF WE CAN HOLD ONTO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, THOUGH WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FARTHER WEST, STORM
STRENGTH/SEVERITY MAY BE LIMITED. FOR NOW, LOW NBM POPS LOOK
FINE BOTH DAYS, ALONG WITH TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGF OF SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCOS, KPUB AND KALS THE NEXT 24 HRS.
SOME CUMULUS BUILD UPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PUSH OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS/VALLEY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING, THOUGH CHANCES FOR -SHRA REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS POINT. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED, BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE UNDER/NEAR ANY WEAK CONVECTION/VIRGA, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WIND NEAR KALS. SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING, WITH WEAK DRAINAGE WINDS DEVELOPING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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