472
FXUS65 KPUB 240624
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1224 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 5 TO 10 DEGREE WARM UP TODAY; T-STORMS FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
- INTERIOR MOUNTAIN RAIN CHANCES INCREASING MONDAY, AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY, LIGHTNING STARTED FIRES POSSIBLE MTNS.
- CONFIDENCE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH AS OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS AT END OF FCST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1210 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COMPACT CLOSED
LOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NEVADA BY 00 UTC WEDNESDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST BY LATE WEEK WITH THE OVERALL MID LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPING INTO AN OMEGA PATTERN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION,
AND ANY THUNDER WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. STORMS
TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LAGARITAS, WITH
MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
OVER THE PLAINS, IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY. THERE MAY BE TWO OR THREE
STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATER TODAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
FOR MONDAY, MID LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES TO SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREATER LAS VEGA AREA. THIS WILL START TO
PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD, AND
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST SLOPE OF THE SAN JUANS. THIS IS BOTH
GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS, IT IS GOOD NEWS BECAUSE THE INTERIOR
MTNS NEED THE PRECIP ANS IT HAS BEEN QUITE DRY OVER THE INTERIOR
PER DROUGHT CHARTS, BUT IT IS BAD NEWS AS THERE IS LIKELY TO BE
A RAMP UP IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS; AND
NEW FIRE STARTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MIN RH VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25% RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS AND 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST
DAY OVER THE REGION THIS ENTIRE FCST PERIOD WITH U80S TO L90S
PLAINS AND U70S VALLEYS.
TUESDAY, IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER OF THE MTNS AS TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 40 MTN TOPS AND 60S VALLEYS. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MUCH HIGHER REGION-WIDE WITH 30-40% VALLEYS AND 50-60 PERCENT MTNS.
POPS WILL BE CATEGORICAL NEARLY ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
ALTHOUGH QPF VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT HIGH
TUESDAY; MAINLY 0.10- 0.20" HIGHER MTNS WITH LES THAN 0.10
VALLEYS. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL BE LIKELY.
BY WEDNESDAY, CLOSED LOW WILL STILL BE QUITE WOUND UP AND
SPINNING OVER THE NV/CA AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW, RELATIVELY LIGHT,
WILL STILL BE OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL START TO ROTATE AROUND AND PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER THE EASTERN SECTION
MAY STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH, AND IT APPEARS WE ARE
TRENDING A LITTLE WETTER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY. THE DRIEST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE I-25
CORRIDOR WHILE THE INTERIOR MTNS SHOULD SEE SCTD/LIKELY SHOWERS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
THURSDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR WILL
LIKELY ADVECT NORTHWARD AND WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THE CLOSED LOW
WILL BE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OVER THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
FRIDAY...FLOW RAMPS UP AT MID LEVELS BUT THE AIR APPEARS TO BE
QUITE DRY AT MID LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL
LOW CENTER. CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER (POSSIBLY
STRONG OVER THE REGION DUE TO THE SHEAR) BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS
RATHER DRY MOST AREAS.
FOR THE WEEKEND, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH
AGREEMENT, GFS WETTER FOR THE AREA WHILE EC DRY. STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE HAS SOME SHOWERS OVER THE REGION WITH 70S AND 80S FOR
HIGHS.
OVERALL, WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS LATER THIS WEEK IS GOING TO BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE POTENT CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW, AND HOW
MUCH DRIER AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO IT (AND WHERE THIS DRIER AIR MOVE
TOWARDS). GUIDANCE TYPICALLY HAS PROBLEMS WITH THE DETAILS WITH
PATTERNS EVOLVING LIKE THIS ONE (OMEGA BLOCK) \/HODANISH
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES, KCOS, KPUB, AND
KALS, FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MIDDLE AND
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS LIKELY RETURNING FOR ALL THREE STATIONS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...EHR
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