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FXUS65 KPUB 241715
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1115 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 5 TO 10 DEGREE WARM UP TODAY; T-STORMS FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
- INTERIOR MOUNTAIN RAIN CHANCES INCREASING MONDAY, AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY, LIGHTNING STARTED FIRES POSSIBLE MTNS.
- CONFIDENCE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH AS OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN DEVELOPS AT END OF FCST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1210 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COMPACT CLOSED
LOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NEVADA BY 00 UTC WEDNESDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST BY LATE WEEK WITH THE OVERALL MID LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPING INTO AN OMEGA PATTERN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION,
AND ANY THUNDER WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. STORMS
TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LA GARITAS,
WITH MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER THE PLAINS, IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY. THERE MAY BE
TWO OR THREE STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATER TODAY
WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
FOR MONDAY, MID LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES TO SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREATER LAS VEGAS AREA. THIS WILL START TO
PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD, AND
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST SLOPE OF THE SAN JUANS. THIS IS BOTH
GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS, IT IS GOOD NEWS BECAUSE THE INTERIOR
MTNS NEED THE PRECIP AND IT HAS BEEN QUITE DRY OVER THE
INTERIOR PER DROUGHT CHARTS, BUT IT IS BAD NEWS AS THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE A RAMP UP IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAIN
REGIONS; AND NEW FIRE STARTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MIN RH VALUES
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25% RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS
AND 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY SHOULD BE
THE HOTTEST DAY OVER THE REGION THIS ENTIRE FCST PERIOD WITH
U80S TO L90S PLAINS AND U70S VALLEYS.
TUESDAY, IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR THE MTNS AS TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 40 MTN TOPS AND 60S VALLEYS. MIN RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER REGION-WIDE WITH 30-40% VALLEYS AND
50-60 PERCENT MTNS. POPS WILL BE CATEGORICAL NEARLY ALL OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, ALTHOUGH QPF VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL
THAT HIGH TUESDAY; MAINLY 0.10- 0.20" HIGHER MTNS WITH LES THAN
0.10 VALLEYS. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL BE LIKELY.
BY WEDNESDAY, CLOSED LOW WILL STILL BE QUITE WOUND UP AND
SPINNING OVER THE NV/CA AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW, RELATIVELY LIGHT,
WILL STILL BE OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL START TO ROTATE AROUND AND PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER THE EASTERN SECTION
MAY STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH, AND IT APPEARS WE ARE
TRENDING A LITTLE WETTER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY. THE DRIEST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE I-25
CORRIDOR WHILE THE INTERIOR MTNS SHOULD SEE SCTD/LIKELY SHOWERS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
THURSDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR WILL
LIKELY ADVECT NORTHWARD AND WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THE CLOSED LOW
WILL BE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OVER THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
FRIDAY...FLOW RAMPS UP AT MID LEVELS BUT THE AIR APPEARS TO BE
QUITE DRY AT MID LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL
LOW CENTER. CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER (POSSIBLY
STRONG OVER THE REGION DUE TO THE SHEAR) BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS
RATHER DRY MOST AREAS.
FOR THE WEEKEND, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH
AGREEMENT, GFS WETTER FOR THE AREA WHILE EC DRY. STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE HAS SOME SHOWERS OVER THE REGION WITH 70S AND 80S FOR
HIGHS.
OVERALL, WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS LATER THIS WEEK IS GOING TO BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE POTENT CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW, AND HOW
MUCH DRIER AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO IT (AND WHERE THIS DRIER AIR MOVE
TOWARDS). GUIDANCE TYPICALLY HAS PROBLEMS WITH THE DETAILS WITH
PATTERNS EVOLVING LIKE THIS ONE (OMEGA BLOCK) \/HODANISH
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THIS ROUND OF TAFS, WILL KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL OUTFLOW AND UPDATE
AS NEEDED. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS WILL BE AT
KCOS BETWEEN 21-00Z, THOUGH MOSTLY JUST CONCERNED WITH BRIEF OUTFLOW
GUSTS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL, LINGERING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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