904
FXUS65 KPUB 241830
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1230 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INTERIOR MOUNTAIN RAIN CHANCES INCREASING MONDAY, AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY, LIGHTNING STARTED FIRES POSSIBLE MTNS.
- FEWER STORM CHANCES MID-WEEK, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SETTING IN OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
- FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH A MESSY, CHALLENGING PATTERN. OVERALL, WARM AND DRY WITH
SOME MIXED IN DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
OVERALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON APPEAR SOMEWHAT LOW. CURRENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
NARROW AREA OF CAPE OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS, WITH SOME DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S OVER BACA COUNTY.
LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED STORMS PUSHING THROUGH
MID-LATE AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL CHANCES FOR ANY STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS SEEMS A BIT LOW. MAIN IMPACT CONCERNS WOULD MAINLY BE SOME
GUSTY OUTFLOW AND LIGHTNING.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS MESSY, WITH A RIDGE OVER MOST OF
COLORADO WHILE AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES ONTO THE CA COAST. THIS
LEADS TO A SOMEWHAT MESSY PATTERN, RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT, AND
LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION.
MONDAY...
FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY OVER MOST OF OUR AREA, JUST AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS.
THIS WILL GIVE US A MIXED BAG IN REGARDS TO ACTIVE WEATHER. FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, SOME INCOMING PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
WHILE THE MOISTURE WILL BE BENEFICIAL OVERALL, GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS
BEEN, THE CHANCE FOR FIRE STARTS WILL ALSO INCREASE DUE TO INCREASED
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. EVEN WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES, MIN RH MONDAY
AFTERNOON GENERALLY STAYS BELOW 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS,
LOWEST IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. FOR THE PLAINS, POPS REMAIN LOW, WITH
ONLY SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY. BEST
CHANCES WOULD BE FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS TO MOVE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON-EVENING, CONTINUING EAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THAT BEING SAID, GIVEN HOW DRY THINGS LOOK AT THE
SURFACE, LITTLE TO NO PRECIP WOULD BE EXPECTED TO HIT THE GROUND,
MAINLY JUST RESULTING IN WINDY VIRGA. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES,
MONDAY WILL BE OUR HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO
LOW-90S OVER THE PLAINS, AND 70S-80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
NOTICEABLY COOLER ON TUESDAY, WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S-80S OVER THE
PLAINS AND 60S-70S IN THE VALLEYS. UPPER WAVE STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST, INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGHOUT MOST
OF THE DAY. THAT BEING SAID, RH VALUES ARE STILL A BIT ON THE DRY
SIDE, SO EXPECTING HIGH-BASED SHOWERS WITH SOME VIRGA. STILL A
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES, BUT FIRE RISK IS OVERALL A BIT LOWER
WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME WETTING RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. OVER THE PLAINS, BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE OUT ALONG
THE KS BORDER, WHERE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD GENERATE SOME
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AS WE MOVE INTO MID-WEEK, THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WRAPS UP AND
CLOSES OFF. INITIALLY, FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BE LIGHT AND
RELATIVELY DRY, LIMITING THE STRENGTH OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION
WEDS-THURS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS, WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY. THIS DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY, BRINGING EVEN LOWER POPS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES THURSDAY AFTERNOON, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
LOOKING LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, FLOW INCREASES AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. THOUGH MOISTURE CONTENT STILL
APPEARS LACKING, SOME ISOLATED-SCATTERED POPS RETURN TO THE AREA AS
WE GET SOME BETTER FORCING. BEYOND THAT, MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO
DIVERGE ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, BUT IN GENERAL
WE CAN EXPECT MORE BREEZY, WARM DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THIS ROUND OF TAFS, WILL KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL OUTFLOW AND UPDATE
AS NEEDED. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS WILL BE AT
KCOS BETWEEN 21-00Z, THOUGH MOSTLY JUST CONCERNED WITH BRIEF OUTFLOW
GUSTS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL, LINGERING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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