649
FXUS65 KPUB 251123
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
523 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED UPTURN IN CONVECTIVE STRENGTH/COVERAGE TODAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OCCURRING ON TUESDAY
- DRIER ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WED, WHILE STORM CHANCES
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS
- GENERALLY WARMER AND DRIER THU/FRI, THOUGH ISOLATED STORM
CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS
- SOME HINTS OF POTENTIALLY COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
LOW LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
TONIGHT, AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WERE DRIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AT LEAST A FEW STORMS
WILL GET STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL,
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SHALLOW MOISTURE/WEAK
INSTABILITY (CAPE OF 300-600 J/KG) WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR
ON MANY STORMS TODAY, SUGGESTING THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BE
ON THE DRY SIDE, PRODUCING LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS BUT ONLY LIGHT
RAINFALL. AND WITH ONGOING DROUGHT, THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED
RISK OF A FEW LIGHTNING STARTED FIRES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB, WITH 80S/90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS, 70S/80S VALLEYS, 60S/70S MOUNTAINS. TONIGHT, AT LEAST A
FEW CAMS KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVER THE PLAINS WELL INTO THE
EVENING, THEN UPPER WAVE LIFTS OUT OF AZ/NM, SPREADING PRECIP
BACK INTO SRN CO (MAINLY THE ERN SAN JUANS) BY EARLY TUE
MORNING. HAVE MADE SOME MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO BLENDED MODEL
POPS, MAINLY TO KEEP PRECIP GOING LONGER ON THE PLAINS, AND TO
EXPAND AREAS THAT POTENTIALLY COULD SEE SHOWERS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
ON TUESDAY, UPPER WAVE MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH COLORADO, WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING IT. WHILE
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL TUE, INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
BE LIMITED, AS CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS KEEP SURFACE CAPE IN THE
400-800 J/KG RANGE. WAVE TIMING COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE, AS A FEW
MODELS BRING THE BEST LIFT THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE MAX
HEATING. STILL EXPECTING MEASURABLE PRECIP AT MANY LOCATIONS
TUE, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY 0.10-0.20 INCHES,
THOUGH A FEW POCKETS OF OVER A QUARTER INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS (ESPECIALLY THE ERN SAN JUANS). MAX TEMPS TUE
SHOULD FALL BACK SOME 5-10 DEGF FROM MONDAYS'S READINGS.
ON WEDNESDAY, UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN, WITH S-SW
FLOW ACROSS COLORADO BRINGING BACK SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS, AND
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HERE, WITH PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO AS CAPE
PUSHES ABOVE 1000 J/K BY LATE DAY.
STILL APPEARS GENERAL DRYING/WARMING TREND ON TRACK FOR
THU/FRI, AS UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES,
WHILE DRIER MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SRN CO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WON'T BE TOO FAR AWAY, AND COULD SEE AT LEAST A CHANCE
FOR STORMS ON THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
POTENTIALLY SLOSHES BACK WESTWARD. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS THEN
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS
MOISTURE INCREASES, THOUGH A GOOD DEAL OF SPREAD IN MODEL
FORECASTS AND WEAK FORCING KEEP CONFIDENCE LOW IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 519 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE MORNING AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
MOVE OFF INTO THE ADJACENT TAF SITES IN THE AFTERNOON BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KTS AND
BRIEF RAINFALL. RISK IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST CONVECTIVE
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS TO CARRY A PROB30 GROUP AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS FOR -TSRA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING BUT INCREASE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS SPREAD UP FROM THE SOUTH. KALS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE -SHRA ON SITE TOWARDS TUE AM AND CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF VALID
PERIOD. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...KT
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