277
FXUS65 KPUB 252137
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
337 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TODAY AND TUESDAY.
- DRIER OVER THE MTS WEDNESDAY, WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES OUT EAST.
- WARMER AND DRIER THURS/FRI, WITH FIRE CONCERNS FOR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND NEARBY MTS.
- SOME HINTS OF POTENTIALLY COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEKEND, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
STRONG UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
WITH A BAGGY TROUGH DIGGING IN OVER THE WESTERN STATES. BRISK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ADVECTING MOIST AIR INTO OUR AREA,
GIVING US A DECENT CHANCE AT SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
SLOWLY DISSIPATING. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH MILD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S-50S.
TUESDAY...
UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO OUR AREA TOMORROW, BRINGING SOME MORE MOISTURE
AND BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN
THE MOUNTAINS FROM OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO STABLE BUT PERSISTENT RAIN
SHOWERS. MEANWHILE, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO
THE KS BORDER. WHILE MOISTURE WON'T BE AN ISSUE, INSTABILITY IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS VARYING CAPE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS, RANGING ANYWHERE FROM ABOUT 200-800 J/KG ON AVERAGE,
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. CERTAINLY ENOUGH FOR SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL, BUT THE ODDS FOR
ANY STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING
SAID, MOST AREAS HAVE A DECENT CHANCE AT GETTING SOME WETTING RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN TODAY, WITH MID 70S-
80S OVER THE PLAINS AND 60S TO LOW-70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE AROUND CA WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME OF THE
ENERGY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR REGION. WINDS
ALOFT WILL TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST, ADVECTING SOME DRIER AIR INTO
THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND CUTTING BACK ON PRECIP.
MEANWHILE, LOWERING PRESSURE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WILL DRAG
UP WARMER, MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF AREA, INCREASING CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
INSTABILITY, AND FLOW ALOFT ISN'T PARTICULARLY STRONG, SO STILL NOT
A TERRIBLY HIGH CHANCE OF ANYTHING SEVERE. STILL, IF CAPE MANAGES TO
PUSH TOWARDS 1000 J/KG, COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
OVER THE PLAINS COMPARED TO TUESDAY, AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DRIER AIR CONTINUES FUNNELING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY-FRIDAY, WITH
TEMPS OUT EAST WARMING BACK INTO THE MID-HIGH 80S AND RH DROPPING
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BOTH AFTERNOONS. AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
ENCROACHES ON WESTERN COLORADO, SOUTHERN FLOW OVER OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL INCREASE BOTH DAYS, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, AS WELL AS SOME OF THE
ADJACENT MOUNTAINS. ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NEED
TO BE ASSESSED IN THE COMING DAYS, ALONG WITH FUEL CONDITIONS.
PATTERN HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND STILL APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT
MESSY, WITH LATEST GUIDANCE HAVING THE TROUGH SWINGING BACK UP TO
THE NORTH AND LEAVING WEAKER FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION. THE WEAK
FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
OVERALL WETTER PATTERN, BUT THE DETAILS WILL NEED A FEW MORE DAYS TO
COME INTO FOCUS BETWEEN THE MODELS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING ALL THREE TAF SITES. COVERAGE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY, BUT OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE PREVALENT ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE A PROB30 IN ALL TAFS ONCE AGAIN, WITH GUSTS 35-40 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. PRECIP CHANCES DWINDLE AT KCOS AND KPUB THIS
EVENING, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR KALS INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH SOME POTENTIAL CIG DROPS IN MVFR PRIOR TO
12Z. LOWER-END CHANCE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR KPUB AS WELL,
BUT ONLY AROUND 07-10Z TONIGHT.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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