090
FXUS65 KPUB 261141
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
541 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND WETTER TODAY, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- DRIER OVER MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY, STILL COOL AND WET
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WITH SHOWER/STORMS CONTINUING.
- WARMER AND DRIER THURS/FRI, STILL A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, AS
WINDS RAMP UP.
- STILL SOME HINTS OF POTENTIALLY COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS
RATHER LOW IN THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS EARLY THIS MORNING, WHILE
SIGNIFICANT S/W TROUGH WAS GENERATING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER
E-SE NM AS IT SLOWLY ROTATES NORTHWARD AROUND THE LOW. FOR
TODAY, 4 CORNERS UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS
CO, WHILE S/W TROUGH OVER ERN NM SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHWARD AS WELL.
OVERALL, EXPECT A CONTINUED UPTURN IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
UNDER SLOWLY STRENGTHENING UPWARD MOTION THROUGH THE DAY, AND
SEVERAL CAMS, ESPECIALLY THE HRRR, SHOW WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING NORTHWARD INTO THE EVENING. CAPE
(500-1000 J/KG) SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A FEW STRONGER
STORMS, WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGF COOLER AT MANY LOCATIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE.
MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY REVOLVES AROUND HOW
STRONG WILL THE ERN NM UPPER WAVE/LOW BE AS IT ROTATES NORTHWARD
INTO ERN CO WED MORNING. SEVERAL 26/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW A RATHER PRONOUNCED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING, WITH ENHANCED
LOW/MID LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS FORCING WIDESPREAD PRECIP ON THE
PLAINS WED MORNING, THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPSLOPE
AND INSTABILITY GENERATE SOME MAINLY WEAK CONVECTION. NBM HAS
BEGUN TO TREND TOWARD A COOLER/WETTER SOLUTION, THOUGH NOT AS
DRAMATIC AS SOME LATE ARRIVING MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. FOR
NOW, STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO NBM ON TEMPS, BUT NUDGED UP PRECIP
CHANCES FROM I-25 EASTWARD, AS CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE FORMING
THAT LOW/MID LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY. FARTHER
WEST OVER/NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
DEVELOP, WITH ENOUGH WIND FOR SOME POCKETS OF ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER, ESPECIALLY IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THU/FRI, WITH DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN CO. AGAIN, ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS IN/NEAR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY,
AS WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. ON THE PLAINS,
STILL SOME MODEL/ENSEMBLE DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR EAST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GETS PUSHED, WITH AT LEAST A FEW SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTING AREAS ALONG/EAST THE MOUNTAINS MAY HOLD ON TO ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION BOTH DAYS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION REMAINS RATHER LOW. NBM GUIDANCE
LOOKS POTENTIALLY A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH POPS GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF DRYING OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS AT THIS POINT.
OMEGA BLOCK UPPER PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE U.S. DURING THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE
VARIABILITY REGARDING TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER ENERGY
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO CANADA ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE. DOESN'T HELP THAT BOTH GFS/ECMWF
26/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE LOST SOME RUN-TO RUN
CONTINUITY REGARDING S/W TIMING AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVER
THE WEEKEND, AS LATEST RUNS ARE MUCH DRIER THAN 24 HRS AGO. IN
GENERAL, PATTERN FAVORS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, AS OCCASIONAL SURGES OF HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS WHILE UPWARD
MOTION IS PROVIDED BY A SERIES OF HARD-TO-TIME SHORT WAVES.
BLENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS AS GOOD AS ANYTHING AT THIS POINT, SO
WILL ROLL WITH THE NBM POPS FOR NOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
CIGS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY WITH -SHRA/-TSRA
MOVING INTO KALS AFTER 16Z AND INTO KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 21Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND GUST UP TO 30 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, THOUGH WIND
DIRECTIONS COULD BECOME ERRATIC NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. CIGS AND VIS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
WITH -SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TAP CONTINUES. STEADIER SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING MORE OF A WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND PERHAPS -DZ AT KCOS OVERNIGHT. KEPT CIGS IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT FOR ALL BY KALS WHERE IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KCOS COULD DROP INTO THE
IFR OR EVEN LIFR CATEGORY GIVEN THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
OVERNIGHT, BUT HIGH RES MODELS HAVE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR
MVFR FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST AS NEWER GUIDANCE
COMES IN.
-KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...KT
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