962
FXUS65 KPUB 122035
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
235 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
- WARMER AND BREEZY TODAY, WITH CONTINUED CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- TRENDING COOLER AND UNSETTLED FOR THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A WARMING TREND MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ARE RIPPLING DOWN FROM THIS FLOW.
THESE DISTURBANCES ARE CAUSING AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FOOTHILLS NEAR THE I-25
CORRIDOR. AT THE SAME TIME, A STATIONARY FRONT IS MEANDERING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE CO/NM BOARDER. DEW POINTS ALONG THIS
FRONT WILL CAUSE DRYLINE TO DEVELOP IN THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE
THIS EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALLOW ANY
THERMAL UPDRAFTS TO REACH INTO UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY OF ABOUT 750-
1250J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO FORM IN THE RATON MESAS BEFORE VEERING TOWARDS THE CORNER OF
BACA, BENT, PROWERS COUNTY. THREATS FOR ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60-80 MPH, LARGE HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES.
THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALSO SUPPORT THE VERY SLIGHT
PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES WITH INCREASING HELICITY ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN BOARDER WITH OK AND KS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVER SO SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS. A PLUME OF FAIRLY MOIST AIR WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 40S WILL ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW. THIS
AIR COULD HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE TERRAIN ON
THE RAMPART AND WET MTNS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ON THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND MOSQUITO MTNS AS WELL. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION CAUSING A STRONG
COOL DOWN THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXISTS SUNDAY AS MOIST AIR FILLS INTO THE REGION CREATING ABOVE
AVERAGE PWAT VALUES FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. A WARMING TREND SETS IN
MIDWEEK AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO ABOVE NORMAL. WEDNESDAY
EVEN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH INTO THE 90S FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND
EVEN POSSIBLY THE 100S FARTHER EAST AND IN THE LOWER ARKANSAS
VALLEY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. TERMINALS TOWARDS
THE SE OF THE STATE COULD EXPERIENCE STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS FROM
DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS. THESE GUSTS ARE NOT REPRESENTED IN THE
TAFS DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION. THE
THREAT IS MOST LIKELY FOR SMALLER TERMINALS IN BENT, BACA, AND
PROWERS COUNTY BETWEEN 21-04Z. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL CALM AND
VEER TO NORTHERLIES BEFORE INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE HEADING INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
YET VFR STILL REMAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN TODAY FOR MANY ZONES DUE TO
STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AS LOW AS
THE SINGLE DIGITS. RED FLAG WARNINGS WERE ADDED TO COZ229 AND 230
DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN GAP WINDS FOR 229 AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS DOWN IN ZONE 230 AS STORMS
PASS TO THE EAST OF THE ZONE.
TOMORROW SHOWS A DECREASED AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS PUSH INTO THE REGION CARRYING FAIRLY MOIST AIR OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PUEBLO COUNTY SEEMS TO BE
IN THE PERFECT MIX OF RECEIVING MANY OF THESE STRONG WINDS YET STILL
REMAINING IN CRITICAL RH VALUES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE UPPER
ARKANSAS VALLEY WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE CRITICAL WEATHER AS GAP AND
FOEHN WINDS CAUSE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR ZONE COZ220.
A COLD FRONT PASSING SUNDAY WILL DECREASE THE FIRE WEATHER RISK
EARLY NEXT WEEK YET MORE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO
RETURN MID NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG WARMING TREND TAKES EFFECT.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220-
222>224-229-230.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ220-
228.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS
FIRE WEATHER...DS
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