959
FXUS65 KPUB 130552
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1152 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
- WARMER AND BREEZY TODAY, WITH CONTINUED CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- TRENDING COOLER AND UNSETTLED FOR THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A WARMING TREND MIDWEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 818 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO CANCEL SEVERE WATCH 323 ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, AS WELL AS TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ARE RIPPLING DOWN FROM THIS FLOW.
THESE DISTURBANCES ARE CAUSING AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FOOTHILLS NEAR THE I-25
CORRIDOR. AT THE SAME TIME, A STATIONARY FRONT IS MEANDERING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE CO/NM BOARDER. DEW POINTS ALONG THIS
FRONT WILL CAUSE DRYLINE TO DEVELOP IN THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE
THIS EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALLOW ANY
THERMAL UPDRAFTS TO REACH INTO UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY OF ABOUT 750-
1250J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO FORM IN THE RATON MESAS BEFORE VEERING TOWARDS THE CORNER OF
BACA, BENT, PROWERS COUNTY. THREATS FOR ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60-80 MPH, LARGE HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES.
THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALSO SUPPORT THE VERY SLIGHT
PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES WITH INCREASING HELICITY ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN BOARDER WITH OK AND KS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVER SO SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS. A PLUME OF FAIRLY MOIST AIR WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 40S WILL ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW. THIS
AIR COULD HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE TERRAIN ON
THE RAMPART AND WET MTNS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ON THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND MOSQUITO MTNS AS WELL. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION CAUSING A STRONG
COOL DOWN THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXISTS SUNDAY AS MOIST AIR FILLS INTO THE REGION CREATING ABOVE
AVERAGE PWAT VALUES FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. A WARMING TREND SETS IN
MIDWEEK AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO ABOVE NORMAL. WEDNESDAY
EVEN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH INTO THE 90S FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND
EVEN POSSIBLY THE 100S FARTHER EAST AND IN THE LOWER ARKANSAS
VALLEY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS, KPUB AND
KALS, THOUGH LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUDS AND SHOWER PROBABILITY
INCREASE STARTING BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z SATURDAY EVE.
A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT,
AFFECTING KCOS AND KPUB, THEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS BEGINNING BETWEEN 14-16Z. MENTIONED PROB30 FOR SHOWERS AT
KCOS AND KPUB STARTING IN THE 02Z-04Z TIME FRAME. FOR KALS, EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS DUE TO FRONT PUSHING ACROSS LA VETA PASS WILL REACH
THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS PROBABLY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN TODAY FOR MANY ZONES DUE TO
STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AS LOW AS
THE SINGLE DIGITS. RED FLAG WARNINGS WERE ADDED TO COZ229 AND 230
DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN GAP WINDS FOR 229 AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS DOWN IN ZONE 230 AS STORMS
PASS TO THE EAST OF THE ZONE.
TOMORROW SHOWS A DECREASED AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS PUSH INTO THE REGION CARRYING FAIRLY MOIST AIR OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PUEBLO COUNTY SEEMS TO BE
IN THE PERFECT MIX OF RECEIVING MANY OF THESE STRONG WINDS YET STILL
REMAINING IN CRITICAL RH VALUES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE UPPER
ARKANSAS VALLEY WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE CRITICAL WEATHER AS GAP AND
FOEHN WINDS CAUSE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR ZONE COZ220.
A COLD FRONT PASSING SUNDAY WILL DECREASE THE FIRE WEATHER RISK
EARLY NEXT WEEK YET MORE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO
RETURN MID NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG WARMING TREND TAKES EFFECT.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ220-
228.
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...WFO PUEBLO
LONG TERM...WFO PUEBLO
AVIATION...MOORE/KT
FIRE WEATHER...WFO PUEBLO
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