309
FXUS65 KPUB 131147
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
547 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND BREEZY AGAIN TODAY, WITH CONTINUED CRITICAL AND NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND A STRONGER COLD
FRONT.
- MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY, WITH GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- WARMER, DRIER AND BREEZY WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BACK ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MODERATING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION, AS ONE PASSING WAVE IS
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO STORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS AT THIS TIME.
LATEST MODELS ARE A TAD SLOWER WITH THE STRONGER COLD FRONT, NOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HELPS TO MIX DOWN WARMER
AIR ALOFT. HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S
WITH 60S, 70S AND 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DEVELOPING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH DEVELOP CRITICAL AND NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY. THE INCREASING SLUG OF
MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SW WILL OFFSET CRITICAL FIRE EXTENT, WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND PORTIONS OF
PUEBLO COUNTY. SAID SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
THE SECONDARY, STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE EVENING, WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE LOWER EASTERN
SLOPES, WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW, COMBINED WITH WARM WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
WITH KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS, AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, ACROSS
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT COOL, CLOUDY AND STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY, WITH INCREASED AVAILABLE MOISTURE LEADING
TO MODEST CAPE PROGGED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS,
COMBINED WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WILL
BRING A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS SPREADING EAST INTO THE MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH 50S, 60S AND
70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS PROGGED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WITH SAID NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SW REMAINS
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES. INCREASING FLOW WILL BRING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS, WITH TRIPLE DIGITS READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH TODAY AT ALL THREE TERMINALS
WITH -SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREADING OFF
INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS. WHILE CIGS WILL REMAIN
VFR, ENHANCED WINDS FROM OUTFLOWS WILL DOMINATE WIND DIRECTIONS,
ESPECIALLY AT KALS. KCOS AND KPUB SHOULD SEE PREDOMINANTLY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND A FRONT WHICH COULD STALL OUT
OVER OR NEAR KPUB BY LATE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST FOR KPUB AS WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO
THE WEST OF THE FRONT, AND MORE EASTERLY BEHIND IT. FOR NOW,
HAVE THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH PUB BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z AND WILL
NEED TO MAKE CHANGES AS THE TIMING BECOMES MORE CLEAR. -SHRA/-TSRA
COULD AFFECT BOTH TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AS CIGS DROP INTO THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORY TOWARDS DAWN.
KCOS WILL SEE THE LOWEST CIGS WITH KPUB STAYING VFR TO HIGH END
MVFR BY DAWN SUNDAY. -KT
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DEVELOPING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS, WILL DEVELOP CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY. A SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL OFFSET CRITICAL FIRE EXTENT, WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF PUEBLO COUNTY FROM 11 AM TO
7 PM. SAID SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS ON FOR SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS SPREADING EAST INTO THE MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BRINGING
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND THE RETURN OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ220-228.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
FIRE WEATHER...MW
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