022
FXUS65 KPUB 131814
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1214 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND BREEZY AGAIN TODAY, WITH CONTINUED CRITICAL AND NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND A STRONGER COLD
FRONT.
- MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY, WITH GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- WARMER, DRIER AND BREEZY WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BACK ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MODERATING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION, AS ONE PASSING WAVE IS
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO STORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS AT THIS TIME.
LATEST MODELS ARE A TAD SLOWER WITH THE STRONGER COLD FRONT, NOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HELPS TO MIX DOWN WARMER
AIR ALOFT. HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S
WITH 60S, 70S AND 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DEVELOPING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH DEVELOP CRITICAL AND NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY. THE INCREASING SLUG OF
MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SW WILL OFFSET CRITICAL FIRE EXTENT, WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND PORTIONS OF
PUEBLO COUNTY. SAID SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
THE SECONDARY, STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE EVENING, WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE LOWER EASTERN
SLOPES, WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW, COMBINED WITH WARM WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
WITH KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS, AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, ACROSS
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT COOL, CLOUDY AND STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY, WITH INCREASED AVAILABLE MOISTURE LEADING
TO MODEST CAPE PROGGED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS,
COMBINED WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WILL
BRING A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS SPREADING EAST INTO THE MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH 50S, 60S AND
70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS PROGGED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WITH SAID NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SW REMAINS
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES. INCREASING FLOW WILL BRING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS, WITH TRIPLE DIGITS READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS APPEARING LIKELY AT ALL SITES THIS
PERIOD, GIVEN THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND COLD FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL SEE WEST NORTHWEST GUSTS DEVELOP ACROSS
ALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING MORE EASTERLY LATER THIS
EVENING, AND WITH GUSTS CONTINUING. CURRENT NORTH NORTHEAST
WINDS AND GUSTS AT COS AND PUB WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THINK WINDS WILL EASILY GUST TO 30 KT,
OCCASIONALLY TO 35 KT, AT EACH SITE THROUGH THE EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR ALS THIS PERIOD,
THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON, AND ONCE
AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS COS AND PUB THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DURING THIS TIME, THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR
THUNDER, AND SO HAVE CONTINUED THE PROB30 AT THIS TIME. DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
FORECASTED MVFR CEILINGS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR BOTH COS AND
PUB, AND DIDN'T MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE
SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW, DON'T THINK MUCH IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DEVELOPING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS, WILL DEVELOP CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY. A SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL OFFSET CRITICAL FIRE EXTENT, WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF PUEBLO COUNTY FROM 11 AM TO
7 PM. SAID SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS ON FOR SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS SPREADING EAST INTO THE MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BRINGING
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND THE RETURN OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220-228.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MW
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