780
FXUS65 KPUB 132021
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
221 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY EVENING.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WHICH CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEHIND A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
- MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- HOT, DRIER AND BREEZY WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BACK ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON FOR STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS,
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, AS
WELL BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE PLAINS. HAVE MAINLY
OBSERVED NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH AS THIS FRONT
HAS PUSHED THROUGH, WITH MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE PLAINS
OBSERVING A ONE TO TWO HOUR WINDOW OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WITH DEW POINTS AND RH VALUES QUICKLY IMPROVING POST
FROPA, HAVE NOT EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME. FOR
THE TWO ZONES IN THE RED FLAG WARNING, THIS HAS MOSTLY
VERIFIED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTY/ZONES. WILL
KEEP THE END TIMES FOR BOTH ZONES THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, COULD
SEE THE PUEBLO COUNTY/ZONE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY BEFORE THE END
TIME.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS REMAINED LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS AS MID LEVEL ENERGY HAS
INCREASED THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, REACHING THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND FAR
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY, DON'T THINK SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OBSERVED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS HERE
RECENTLY, DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH.
HIGHER INSTABILITY IN THIS LOCATION IS SUPPORTING SOME MORE
ROBUST UPDRAFTS AT THIS TIME, AND GIVEN HIGH AMOUNT OF DCAPE,
THINK A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ENERGY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN MOISTURE THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME WILL SUPPORT INCREASED INSTABILITY AND WITH SHEAR
INCREASING AS WELL, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM OR TWO LATER THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
DON'T ANTICIPATE ANY SEVERE WEATHER IN THESE LOCATIONS.
MUCH COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT AND WITH DEEPER
EASTERLIES IN PLACE, THINK SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY, THIS COOLER AIR WILL SUPPORT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. ADDITIONALLY, INSTABILITY
GETS PUSHED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY.
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS PROGGED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, AND WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AT AND
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WITH SAID NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE DESERT SW REMAINS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES.
INCREASING FLOW WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BACK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO, ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS, WITH
TRIPLE DIGITS READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS APPEARING LIKELY AT ALL SITES THIS
PERIOD, GIVEN THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND COLD FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL SEE WEST NORTHWEST GUSTS DEVELOP ACROSS
ALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING MORE EASTERLY LATER THIS
EVENING, AND WITH GUSTS CONTINUING. CURRENT NORTH NORTHEAST
WINDS AND GUSTS AT COS AND PUB WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THINK WINDS WILL EASILY GUST TO 30 KT,
OCCASIONALLY TO 35 KT, AT EACH SITE THROUGH THE EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR ALS THIS PERIOD,
THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON, AND ONCE
AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS COS AND PUB THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DURING THIS TIME, THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR
THUNDER, AND SO HAVE CONTINUED THE PROB30 AT THIS TIME. DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
FORECASTED MVFR CEILINGS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR BOTH COS AND
PUB, AND DIDN'T MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE
SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW, DON'T THINK MUCH IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220-228.
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...MW/RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
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