060
FXUS65 KPUB 140727
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
127 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY WITH 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
- HOT BY WEDNESDAY, WITH MOST OF THE PLAINS AT OR ABOVE 100
DEGREES, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH FIRE DANGER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
CURRENTLY...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 2 AM
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS UPPER ENERGY EXITS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP DEVELOP LOW
STRATUS THROUGH MORNING, WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE,
MAINLY ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
AND RAMPART RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. UPPER ENERGY
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON, WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
WYOMING INTO NEBRASKA. THIS WILL HELP KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS EASTERLY, TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, INITIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, AND SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SBCAPE
VALUES IN 500-700 J/KG RANGE AND WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30
KTS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH, WITH HAIL TO HALF
AN INCH AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES.
PWAT VALUES NEAR 0.8 INCHES COULD LEAD TO DECENT PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCIES WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER
CORES.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES EAST
INTO KANSAS OVERNIGHT. MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT, WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OUT
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND NEAR 40S FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK, AND UPPER RIDGING
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY
BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE INCREASING FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AND VERY
HOT TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
ONE LAST EMBEDDED WAVE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO,
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE, EAST INTO THE RATON MESA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AS THEY
MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE RATON MESA, HOWEVER, 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 20 KTS, AND CAPE VALUES NEAR 1200 J/KG
SHOULD HELP STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE. HAIL TO 3/4 OF AN INCH
AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY EVENING,
CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. FOR AREAS FROM THE LA GARITA
RANGE, NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE UPPER ENERGY IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, LEAVING SOUTHERN COLORADO
DRY FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO WARM WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND MID
90S TO LOWER 100S BY WEDNESDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AREAS
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL SEE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR (IN ADDITIONS TO THE VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES) WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ENCOMPASSING ALL MOUNTAIN
AREAS, EAST INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES SHOULD PLAN TO BURN ANOTHER DAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO, WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS, WITH HIGHS THURSDAY MOSTLY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY,
WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND SAN LUIS VALLEY.
BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WITH BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES. THIS WILL SHIFT FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE DAILY, WITH BE BEST CHANCES OVER
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT, WITH MOSTLY 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS. SPOTTY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, INTO THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY, MAINLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS NOW THROUGH 08Z, THEN AS
EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENS AND INCREASES, CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER ALONG
WITH DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN SPREADING, PRODUCING MVFR FOR MOST
SPOTS, AND PERSISTING INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY. INTRODUCED PROB30 WORDING
FOR -TSRA POTENTIAL STARTING AROUND 19Z SUNDAY FOR ALL THREE
TERMINAL SITES, KCOS, KPUB AND KALS AND LASTING UNTIL AROUND
02Z.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOORE
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