557
FXUS65 KPUB 142008
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
208 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS SOUTH OF
THE ARKANSAS RIVER MON AFTERNOON
- WARM AND DRY TUE, THEN HOT ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MOST OF THE
PLAINS AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES, AND HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS
- COOLER THU, THEN WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WEAK UPPER WAVE CROSSING SRN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON, AND WITH
WELL-TIMED CLEARING, CAPE OVER THE MOUNTAINS HAS RISEN INTO THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE ALREADY, WHILE VALUES IN THE 400-800 J/KG
RANGE ARE FORECAST FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS BY
LATE DAY. SCATTERED STORMS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN AS OF 130 PM, AND EXPECTED STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND SPREAD EASTWARD ONTO LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM MID-AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. DOESN'T APPEAR WE'LL HAVE QUITE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS, THOUGH ONE OR TWO STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE 45-50 MPH WINDS AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF SMALL
HAIL, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS/PALMER DIVIDE/RATON MESA.
WEAKENING ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO THE EVENING, THEN PRECIP ENDS AT
MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING. ON
MONDAY, WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA, WITH SOME DRIER
AIR WORKING INTO THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY AFTERNOON. ON THE PLAINS, NOSE OF 50 PLUS DEGF
DEWPOINTS PUSHES NORTHWARD ALONG/WEST OF THE KS BORDER, WITH
CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR
RISES INTO THE 40-50 KT RANGE, SUGGESTING IF STORMS DEVELOP,
THEY'LL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE, WITH LARGE HAIL INITIALLY, THEN
MORE OF WIND THREAT AS THE PUSH TOWARD THE KS BORDER BY 00Z.
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SOMEWHAT VERSUS BLENDED (NBM) GUIDANCE OVER
THE PLAINS AS A RESULT, WHILE DRY AIR FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
LIMITS STORM COVERAGE/STRENGTH TO ISOLATED/WEAK, MAINLY OVER THE
ERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
MOST LOCATIONS WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
BUILDING WRN U.S. RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD ON TUE, BRINGING
DRIER/WARMER CONDITIONS TO ALL OF SRN CO AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SHUNTED EASTWARD. ENOUGH W-NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN SAN LUIS VALLEY AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY. MAX TEMPS TUE BUMP
BACK UP INTO THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS, WITH 70S/80S
MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS. HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK THEN EXPECTED WED, AS
AREA REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF THE WRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE, WHILE
REASONABLY STRONG (30-50 KTS AT 7H-5H) WINDS ALOFT MAXIMIZE
DOWNSLOPE WARMING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NBM
FORECAST MAXES ARE SLIGHTLY TOO HIGH, THOUGH STILL EXPECT ALMOST
ALL THE PLAINS TO BE OVER 100F, WITH PERHAPS SOME READINGS NEAR
105F ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH
AREA-WIDE ON WED, WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND VALLEYS POTENTIALLY CREEPING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR LATE IN
THE DAY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
NOW GIVEN POTENTIAL FUELS UPDATES ON MON, THOUGH EXPECT MANY
ZONES FROM I-25 WEST TO EVENTUALLY NEED A HIGHLIGHT WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
COOLER ON THU AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION, THOUGH
INITIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS PALTRY, SO DRY FORECAST
WILL PERSIST THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THEN
DEVELOPS FRI-SUN, AS SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS INTERACTS WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE ERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERAL BROAD-BRUSH OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
POPS EACH DAY LOOKS FINE FOR NOW, WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KALS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WILL CARRY A PROB 30 FOR -TSRA FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE UNDER ANY HEAVIER
ACTIVITY. SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINAL BY 03Z WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
TOWARDS 12Z TUE IF PRECIPITATION FALLS AT THE TERMINAL.
KPUB AND KCOS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY, PUSHING OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS MID/LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL CARRY A PROB30 FOR -TSRA AT
BOTH TERMINALS FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. SHOWER CHANCES END 03Z-06Z WITH VFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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