872
FXUS65 KPUB 142330
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
530 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS SOUTH OF
THE ARKANSAS RIVER MON AFTERNOON
- WARM AND DRY TUE, THEN HOT ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MOST OF THE
PLAINS AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES, AND HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS
- COOLER THU, THEN WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WEAK UPPER WAVE CROSSING SRN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON, AND WITH
WELL-TIMED CLEARING, CAPE OVER THE MOUNTAINS HAS RISEN INTO THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE ALREADY, WHILE VALUES IN THE 400-800 J/KG
RANGE ARE FORECAST FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS BY
LATE DAY. SCATTERED STORMS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN AS OF 130 PM, AND EXPECTED STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND SPREAD EASTWARD ONTO LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM MID-AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. DOESN'T APPEAR WE'LL HAVE QUITE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS, THOUGH ONE OR TWO STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE 45-50 MPH WINDS AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF SMALL
HAIL, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS/PALMER DIVIDE/RATON MESA.
WEAKENING ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO THE EVENING, THEN PRECIP ENDS AT
MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING. ON
MONDAY, WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA, WITH SOME DRIER
AIR WORKING INTO THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY AFTERNOON. ON THE PLAINS, NOSE OF 50 PLUS DEGF
DEWPOINTS PUSHES NORTHWARD ALONG/WEST OF THE KS BORDER, WITH
CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR
RISES INTO THE 40-50 KT RANGE, SUGGESTING IF STORMS DEVELOP,
THEY'LL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE, WITH LARGE HAIL INITIALLY, THEN
MORE OF WIND THREAT AS THE PUSH TOWARD THE KS BORDER BY 00Z.
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SOMEWHAT VERSUS BLENDED (NBM) GUIDANCE OVER
THE PLAINS AS A RESULT, WHILE DRY AIR FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
LIMITS STORM COVERAGE/STRENGTH TO ISOLATED/WEAK, MAINLY OVER THE
ERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
MOST LOCATIONS WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
BUILDING WRN U.S. RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD ON TUE, BRINGING
DRIER/WARMER CONDITIONS TO ALL OF SRN CO AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SHUNTED EASTWARD. ENOUGH W-NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN SAN LUIS VALLEY AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY. MAX TEMPS TUE BUMP
BACK UP INTO THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS, WITH 70S/80S
MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS. HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK THEN EXPECTED WED, AS
AREA REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF THE WRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE, WHILE
REASONABLY STRONG (30-50 KTS AT 7H-5H) WINDS ALOFT MAXIMIZE
DOWNSLOPE WARMING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NBM
FORECAST MAXES ARE SLIGHTLY TOO HIGH, THOUGH STILL EXPECT ALMOST
ALL THE PLAINS TO BE OVER 100F, WITH PERHAPS SOME READINGS NEAR
105F ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH
AREA-WIDE ON WED, WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND VALLEYS POTENTIALLY CREEPING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR LATE IN
THE DAY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
NOW GIVEN POTENTIAL FUELS UPDATES ON MON, THOUGH EXPECT MANY
ZONES FROM I-25 WEST TO EVENTUALLY NEED A HIGHLIGHT WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
COOLER ON THU AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION, THOUGH
INITIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS PALTRY, SO DRY FORECAST
WILL PERSIST THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THEN
DEVELOPS FRI-SUN, AS SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS INTERACTS WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE ERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERAL BROAD-BRUSH OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
POPS EACH DAY LOOKS FINE FOR NOW, WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KCOS AND KPUB...VCSH THROUGH 06Z BUT FEEL THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS
LIKELY ENDED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY LOWER CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL WILL REQUIRE
MONITORING.
KALS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
HIGHER TERRAIN SO WILL MAINTAIN PROB30 WORDING FOR -TSRA THROUGH
02Z, THEN VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. DECREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP BY
MIDDAY, SO INTRODUCED PROB30 WORDING FOR -TSRA ONCE AGAIN STARTING
AT 20Z.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOORE
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