048
FXUS65 KPUB 151728
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1128 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH 80S TODAY, WITH NEAR RECORD HEAT
WEDNESDAY ON THE PLAINS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, SPREADING EAST ON WEDNESDAY
DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE BY LATE
IN WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
CURRENTLY....RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL AFTER 2 AM. TEMPERATURES ARE
MAINLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES PRETTY STEADY INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
ENERGY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP MOISTURE
POOLED ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR, AND MID 50S NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH SBCAPE VALUES ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR AROUND 1000 J/KG. 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO
NEAR 30 TO 35 KTS. WITH THE WEAK ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON, A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE, AND
INTO THE RATON MESA REGION. HAIL TO NEAR 3/4 OF A INCH IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH. A SEVERE STORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RATON MESA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NORTH ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON
PRODUCING SPOTTY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CAUTION IS
ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING OVER THESE AREAS.
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING,
DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT. ONCE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING WITH THE CURRENT MODEL
CYCLES. FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY, WITH NEAR RECORD HEAT, WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO, AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE,
WITH 80S AND 90S FOR TUESDAY, AND UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ON
WEDNESDAY. RECORD HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE POSSIBLE (KCOS RECORD
IS 97 WITH A FORECAST HIGH OF 97, AND KPUB RECORD IS 103 WITH A
FORECAST HIGH OF 103). PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM THE HEAT BY SEEKING SHADE OUTDOORS, LIMITING
PHYSICAL ACTIVITY AND FINDING AIR CONDITIONING IF POSSIBLE. SPOTTY,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY. BY WEDNESDAY, STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD
EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR. WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AND HUMIDITY VALUES UNDER
10 PERCENT ARE FORECAST, AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN
PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGING TO THE WEST IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS COLORADO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WITH UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE PLAINS,
SLOWLY ADVECTING MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WARM WITH 80S AND 90S. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
INCREASE, AND SHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER OR SEVERE
STORMS SUNDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. FOR AREAS ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, AND INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, DAILY
SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
AT KALS, PROB30 FOR -TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN ACTIVITY
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND RISK ENDS AFTER 21Z. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS. ONCE STORMS END, VFR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH DECREASING WINDS.
AT KCOS, LOW RISK OF CONVECTION DRIFTING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, SO WILL INCLUDE A VCSH 21Z-00Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MAIN THREAT FROM ANY -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS. CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
AT KPUB, VFR THE NEXT 24 HRS, AS CONVECTION SHOULD STAY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE TERMINAL. SUSPECT WE'LL SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DISTANT STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING, BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1234 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
SPOTTY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM THE
LA GARITA RANGE, NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN TUESDAY. DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, AND
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY, AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IS IN EFFECT. WINDS GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH AND HUMIDITY VALUES
UNDER 10 PERCENT ALONG WITH HOT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>225-228>230.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN
FIRE WEATHER...MOZLEY
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