190
FXUS65 KPUB 152327
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
527 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND DRIER TUESDAY, THEN VERY HOT AND CONTINUED DRY ON
WEDNESDAY
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
SAN LUIS VALLEY TUESDAY, THEN WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, VALLEYS AND ALONG I-25 WEDNESDAY
- COOLER ON THURSDAY, THEN HOTTER AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
A SLOW INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, MAINLY
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 342 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR RED FLAG ISSUANCE FOR
LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES TOMORROW FROM 1 PM THOUGH 9 PM.
INCORPORATED LATEST OBS DATA TO REFRESH THE FRONT END OF THE
GRIDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE NM BORDER, WITH SOME VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY
DRIFTING OFF PIKES PEAK INTO EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL. EXPECT
PIKES PEAK REGION ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INTO SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR MASS FARTHER EAST, WHILE
STORMS FARTHER SOUTH MAY BE MORE LONG-LIVED AS INSTABILITY IS
SLIGHTLY BETTER AND UPWARD MOTION IS ENHANCED BY SHORT WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE NM BORDER. COULD SEE ONE OR TWO BRIEFLY SEVERE
STORMS FROM TRINIDAD EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER 60 MPH THE MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY
SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH OF THE COLORADO BORDER THIS EVENING, WITH
JUST SOME RESIDUAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS LEFT ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER SUNSET. ON TUESDAY, DEEPENING NW FLOW WILL SHUNT MOST
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO, AND WITH ALMOST
ALL CAMS SHOWING NO CONVECTION OVER THE REGION, WILL RUN WITH A
THUNDERSTORM-FREE FORECAST AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RISING MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND DOWNSLOPE
MIXING WILL GIVE MAX TEMPS A BOOST TUE AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS
INTO THE 80S/90S AT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
EVEN HOTTER AND DRIER ON WEDNESDAY AS SWRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS SLIGHTLY INTO CO, WITH PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
OVER THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE, WITH READINGS NEAR/ABOVE 100F ON THE PLAINS, WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S MOST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WINDS ALOFT DO LOOK
SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, AS UPPER JET HAS
DRIFTED FARTHER NORTH, AND WHILE WE'LL STILL SEE ENOUGH WIND FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, GUSTS SHOULD STAY UNDER 40
MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES WED NIGHT, WITH COOLER
TEMPS ON THU, MOST NOTICEABLE COOLING ON THE PLAINS WHERE
READINGS WILL DROP SOME 10-15 DEGF, WHILE OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
MAXES WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL BACK A FEW DEGREES. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS RATHER SLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU, WITH
MOST MODELS SHOWING JUST A HINT OF SOME WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE
SRN SANGRES BY EVENING. WARMING TREND THEN RETURNS FRIDAY AS
UPPER HIGH SLOWLY EXPANDS BACK NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO AHEAD OF
DEEPENING TROUGH DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA. LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES SLIGHTLY, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO RE-APPEAR, THOUGH WITH FORCING LACKING,
NOT EXPECTING VERY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. SAT LOOKS HOT, WITH
ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUING, THOUGH AT LEAST SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND THE 15/12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS BRING A GOOD DEAL OF
DRY AIR BACK ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER WAVE RACES BY TO THE
NORTH, WHICH WOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE CONSIDERABLY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER SUN INTO MON AS NRN WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH COLORADO, WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNING TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS FOR A UPTURN IN
CONVECTIVE CHANCES BOTH DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS, INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF
KCOS, KPUB AND KALS. MAINTAINED VCSH FOR KCOS FOR A COUPLE OF
HRS BUT ACTIVITY IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 342 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
HAVE SEEN AT LEAST SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE LA GARITA RANGE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SAN
LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, AND EXPECT A REPEAT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AREA REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTH. GIVEN WHAT HAS OCCURRED/IS
OCCURRING TODAY, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A RED FLAG FOR FIRE ZONE
220 TOMORROW FROM 1 PM UNTIL 9 PM, WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH
ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS IN GJT CWA. CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONES 223 AND 224 AS WELL, BUT AT THIS
TIME AREAL COVERAGE SEEMS TO BE LACKING.
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, INTERIOR VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY AS
JET SAGS SOUTH SLIGHTLY, WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES, WEST WINDS
GUSTING 30-40 MPH AND HUMIDITY VALUES UNDER 10 PERCENT. CURRENT
FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONFIGURATION FOR WED LOOKS GOOD, AND WILL
LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO WARNING OVERNIGHT.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ220.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>225-228>230.
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE/MOZLEY/PETERSEN
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