358
FXUS65 KPUB 161743
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1143 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
- VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH HEAT
ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR EL PASO, PUEBLO AND EASTERN FREMONT
COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES 95 TO 105 DEGREES ARE
FORECAST.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER, DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED
OUT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
CURRENTLY...QUIET WEATHER HAS SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER WAVE DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD, WITH 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH LOWS BY SUNRISE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND RIDGE OFF THE
WEST COAST. A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL HELP KEEP SOUTHERN COLORADO
DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WITH BE HIGH
FIRE DANGER FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, LA GARITA RANGE, NORTHERN
SAN LUIS VALLEY AND WESTERN FREMONT COUNTY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE LOW, WITH VALUES UNDER 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY,
IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. MORE SPOTTY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SAN JUAN RANGE AND
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY. ACROSS THE PLAINS, WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL HELP KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES AT OR ABOVE 15 PERCENT.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO WARM, WITH
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
WITH UPPER RIDGING MOVING ACROSS COLORADO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WEDNESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH ENHANCED MIXING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S
ACROSS THE PLAINS. RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN AT THE
3 CLIMATE SITES (KALS RECORD 92 AND FORECAST OF 92, KCOS RECORD
OF 97 AND FORECAST OF 98, AND KPUB RECORD OF 103 AND FORECAST OF
103). DUE TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST, HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR EL PASO, PUEBLO AND EASTERN FREMONT COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW THE HEAT RISK
CRITERIA WITH 100 TO 105 FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS. CAUTION SHOULD
BE TAKEN WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER TO
STAY HYDRATED. IN ADDITION TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES, HIGH FIRE
DANGER WILL SPREAD FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN DOWN INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR BY THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS NEAR 40 TO 45 MPH AND
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL UNDER 10 PERCENT WILL PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WILL DROP ACROSS THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND, AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE
50S FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY EXPECTED. A FEW
CUMULUS BUILDINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS, AND A VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER, WITH HIGHS 15
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY (80S ACROSS
THE PLAINS). ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
KANSAS AND FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS SOUTHWESTERLY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO RETURN TO THE REGION, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
ADJACENT PLAINS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM, WITH MOSTLY UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE PLAINS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OUT
WEST, WITH GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADING ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON
SATURDAY, INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MIXING WILL LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. THE DRYLINE MAY
HAVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG IT OUT NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. ON SUNDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS OUT PLAINS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY PERIOD BEGIN WET
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS AT KPUB AND KCOS
WILL FOLLOW USUAL DIURNAL CYCLE, WITH S-SE WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY LIGHT (NLY AT KCOS, WLY AT KPUB) FLOW
OVERNIGHT. AT KALS, PERIOD OF GUSTY (20-25 KTS) N-NW WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, BEFORE WINDS BECOME
LIGHT WLY OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
FREMONT COUNTY. THE AREA OF MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FROM THE LA
GARITA RANGE, NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY, WESTERN FREMONT COUNTY
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WHERE WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 40 MPH WITH
HUMIDLY VALUES UNDER 15 PERCENT. FURTHER SOUTH, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER WITH MORE SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST OF I-25 ON
WEDNESDAY. INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY VALUES WELL UNDER 10 PERCENT WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 45 TO
POSSIBLY 50 MPH, ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
PERIODS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE,
MAINLY FOR THE LA GARITA RANGE, CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
SAN LUIS VALLEY THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS
INTO THE PLAINS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220-
222>224.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>225-228>230.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ083>086.
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PETERSEN
FIRE WEATHER...
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