288
FXUS65 KPUB 170304
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
904 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
POTENTIALLY AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
- VERY HOT WEDNESDAY, WITH HEAT ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR EL PASO,
PUEBLO AND EASTERN FREMONT COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES OF 90F TO
105F LIKELY OVER MOST VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 901 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
TODAY. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE BEGINNING TO RISE AND WINDS SUBSIDE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, DOWN INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO COLORADO TODAY HAS BROUGHT DRY AIR AND
WARMER TEMPS TO THE REGION, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHUNTED
EASTWARD INTO KS/OK/TX. STILL ENOUGH NW FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP GUSTY
WINDS GOING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT, THOUGH JUST ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT IN PLACE TO KEEP MIN TEMPS RATHER WARM, WITH A FEW
SPOTS ON THE PLAINS REMAINING IN THE LOW 60S THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ON WED, HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD, WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND 22C
ALONG I-25 AS MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S/LOW 100S AS A RESULT, WITH HEAT
ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR EL PASO/PUEBLO/ERN FREMONT COUNTIES.
RECORD TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE 3 CLIMATE SITES (KALS RECORD
92F/FORECAST 91F, KCOS RECORD 97F/FORECAST 97F, AND KPUB RECORD
103F/FORECAST 103F). WHILE WINDS ALOFT AREN'T PARTICULARLY
STRONG (20-30 KTS AT 700MB, 30-40KTS AT 500 MB), DEEP MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW SOME HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO REACH THE SURFACE IN
THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA,
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. HAVE CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WED, WITH MOST CRITICAL
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
NRN STREAM WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS WED
NIGHT, BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPS TO THE PLAINS ON THU. EXPECT
MAXES 10-15 DEGF COOLER THAN WED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH ONLY MINOR COOLING OF A COUPLE DEGF OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS. WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DECREASE ENOUGH TO LESSEN
FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT THU AFTERNOON, THOUGH STILL SOME POCKETS
OF ELEVATED/BRIEF CRITICAL OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NRN
SAN LUIS VALLEY. WARMING TREND STARTS FRI AS RIDGE/HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO BUILD, WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE
PLAINS/ERN MOUNTAINS. MOST MODELS GENERATE AT LEAST SOME HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION OVER THE SANGRES/SRN I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON, THOUGH WORRY THAT WE MAY HAVE MORE WIND/LIGHTNING
THAN RAIN WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY AS T/TD SPREADS REMAIN
RATHER LARGE. LEAD UPPER WAVE RACES EASTWARD THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES ON SAT, WITH INCREASING W-SW FLOW ACROSS COLORADO
THROUGH THE DAY. SET-UP SAT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER, AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SHUNTED EASTWARD. FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
THE PLAINS SUN WITH POTENTIAL RENEWED WESTWARD SURGE OF
MOISTURE AND INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY FROM I-25 EASTWARD
FROM SUN INTO TUE, THOUGH DETAILS STILL LOOK A LITTLE MESSY
THIS FAR OUT. BLENDED GUIDANCE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS FINE FOR NOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS, INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS, KPUB AND
KALS.
KALS - NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z, THEN LIGHT.
GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN TUE BY 22Z.
KPUB - GUSTY E WINDS THROUGH 02Z, THEN LIGHTER DIURNAL FLOW. GUSTY
NW WINDS DEVELOPING TUE BY 22Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
FREMONT COUNTY. MOST CRITICAL AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY/NRN SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST, WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE SPOTTY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE SAN JUANS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS
DIMINISH, BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE POOR, SETTING
THE STAGE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ON WED.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR AREAS
WEST OF I-25 ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, VERY
HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES UNDER 10 PERCENT WILL LEAD
TO DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH
AS 45 MPH, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
PERIODS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MAINLY OVER THE LA GARITA RANGE,
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY. POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY SPREADING ONTO THE
PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
COZ220>225-228>230.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ083>086.
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
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