362
FXUS65 KPUB 171806
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1206 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR EL PASO, PUEBLO
AND EASTERN FREMONT COUNTIES. HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S.
- HIGH FIRE DANGER DUE TO GUST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL IMPACT AREAS WEST OF I-25 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY, AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE PLAINS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM, WITH
60S TO LOWER 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. INCREASING FLOW
ALOFT WILL HELP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON, HELPING TO BOOST
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS (KALS RECORD 92/FORECAST OF
92, KCOS RECORD 97/FORECAST 98, KPUB RECORD 103/FORECAST 103).
HEAD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR EL PASO, PUEBLO AND EASTERN
FREMONT COUNTIES FROM 11 AM THROUGH 7 PM DUE TO THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO STAY HYDRATED AND
LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DUE TO THE HEAT. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAT, HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-25. MOUNTAIN AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE LA
GARITA RANGE, NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS,
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE. FURTHER EAST OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS, TELLER COUNTY, AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR WILL SEE VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES, NEAR 5 PERCENT, WITH
WINDS GUSTING NEAR 30 TO 35 MPH. CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY
OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES.
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE,
AND PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN
MUCH COOLER AIR WITH MOSTLY 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH GUSTY WINDS,
INCREASING MOISTURE AND STRATUS BY THURSDAY MORNING. NO
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH DIFFERENCES IN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SATURDAY LOOKS HOT, WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO ON THURSDAY, AND EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS BY FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
THURSDAY, WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BY THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. FURTHER NORTH,
HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE LA GARITA RANGE INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.
BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO KANSAS AND
TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST TURNING FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO
SOUTHWESTERLY. UPPER ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS DURING THE EVENING, DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM WITH HIGHS BACK THROUGH THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MIXING WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 90S OT LOWER 100S ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS AND HUMIDITY
VALUES UNDER 10 PERCENT WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD HIGH FIRE
DANGER. HOW FAR THE DRIER AIR PUSHES EAST WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE PLAINS, WITH A DRYLINE LIKELY
LURKING NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE
DRYLINE MIXES, A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING. IF THE DRYLINE MIXES TOO FAR EAST, THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN KANSAS, WITH HIGH FIRE DANGER ALL THE WAY
OUT TO THE KANSAS BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW SOUTHEASTERLY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S AND 90S ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE PLAINS, AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE PRETTY
ADAMANT WITH QPF TOTALS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY ON THE PLAINS, WITH
THE ECMWF HAS LESS PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. LEFT THE NBM
POPS AND QPF DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH NEARLY DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS REALLY PEGS THE PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PWAT VALUES OVER AN INCH DO SUPPORT
WET CONDITIONS BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SPOTTY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DUE TO LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES
AND GUSTY WINDS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY W-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A
FEW GUSTS 20-25 KTS UNTIL 01Z-03Z. OVERNIGHT, COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH KCOS AROUND 05Z AND KPUB NEAR 06Z, WITH NLY WINDS
GUSTING 30-40 KTS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH AND
TURN BACK S-SE 11Z-15Z. AT KALS, BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY EAST
WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER 11Z, AS COLD AIR EAST OF THE SANGRES GETS
DEEP ENOUGH TO SPILL WESTWARD INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1234 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
AREAS MAINLY WEST OF I-25. FOR AREAS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS,
DOWN INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE AND NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY,
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST HERE, WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
POSSIBLE, AND HUMIDITY VALUES UNDER 15 PERCENT. FOR AREAS EAST
INTO TELLER COUNTY, EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR, HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR HUMIDITY
VALUES NEAR 5 PERCENT, WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 9 PM TODAY.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL IMPACT MAINLY AREAS FROM THE LA GARITA
RANGE, NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON, AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO
UNDER 10 PERCENT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR EAST THE
DRIER AIR MIXES AND THE EXTENT EAST OF THE HIGH FIRE DANGER.
SPOTTY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220>225-
228>230.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220-223.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ083>086.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN
FIRE WEATHER...MOZLEY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page