298
FXUS65 KPUB 172054
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
254 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AT MANY
LOCATIONS, THEN A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER AIR AND LOWER FIRE
DANGER OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
ON SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.
- MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS FROM
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
HOT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH RECORD MAXES REACHED AT COS (98F
SO FAR/OLD RECORD 97F) AND TIED AT PUB (103F) AS OF 215 PM.
SURFACE TROUGH/INITIAL PIECE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT HAS BACKED
WESTWARD ON THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH HAS KNOCKED BACK
TEMPS JUST A COUPLE DEGF BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE EVENING, BEFORE MAIN COLD FRONT ARRIVES
TOWARD MIDNIGHT, WITH GUSTY (30-40 MPH) NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT
FROM I-25 EASTWARD. ON THURSDAY, MAX TEMPS WILL RUN 10-15 DEGF
COOLER ON THE PLAINS, WHILE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SEE MAXES DROP
ONLY A COUPLE DEGF. WINDS ON THU SHOULD FALL OFF NOTICEABLY
AREA-WIDE AS UPPER JET LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND WINDS ALOFT
WEAKEN, THOUGH STILL ENOUGH MIXING FOR AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY. A
FEW MODELS HINT AT SOME WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
SANGRES LATE IN THE DAY, THOUGH WITH LOW LEVELS STILL RATHER DRY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, SUSPECT ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAK AND
ISOLATED AT BEST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CO ON FRIDAY, WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN (DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S) OVER THE PLAINS AS
SURFACE FLOW SWINGS AROUND TO THE SE. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO POP OFF AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH STORMS PUSHING ONTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY
EVENING. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS, WITH 80S/90S
WIDESPREAD VALLEYS/PLAINS. UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON SAT, WITH INCREASING W-SW FLOW ACROSS SRN CO DURING
THE DAY. PATTERN LOOKS LIKELY TO PRODUCE HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA, WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE KS BORDER LATE AS THE DRYLINE SHARPENS UP. MAX TEMPS CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 100F ON THE PLAINS AS MIXING INCREASES, WITH 80S/90S
AGAIN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS/VALLEYS. UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS FROM
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SERIES OF WEAK WAVES AND
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTS BRINGING A SLOW COOLING AND MOISTENING
TREND TO MAINLY THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. EXPECT A
GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS RESULT, THOUGH UNFORTUNATELY BULK OF PRECIP WILL STAY EAST
OF RATHER PARCHED CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ZONES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY W-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A
FEW GUSTS 20-25 KTS UNTIL 01Z-03Z. OVERNIGHT, COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH KCOS AROUND 05Z AND KPUB NEAR 06Z, WITH NLY WINDS
GUSTING 30-40 KTS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH AND
TURN BACK S-SE 11Z-15Z. AT KALS, BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY EAST
WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER 11Z, AS COLD AIR EAST OF THE SANGRES GETS
DEEP ENOUGH TO SPILL WESTWARD INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH SLOWLY RISING
HUMIDITY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS TO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT, THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD
STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
ON THURSDAY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE AREA,
THOUGH WINDS AT MOST LOCATIONS WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. MAIN AREA OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THU AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WHERE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS (20-30
MPH) WILL SPREAD FROM THE SAWATCH RANGE INTO THE UPPER ARKANSAS
VALLEY. WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING HERE, BUT
WILL CANCEL ANY HIGHLIGHTS FARTHER SOUTH AS WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER, WITH ONLY SOME BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN A FEW
SPOTS OVER THE LA GARITAS AND NRN SAN LUIS VALLEY.
MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY, AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE
AFTERNOON, AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO UNDER 10 PERCENT.
THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR EAST THE DRIER AIR MIXES AND
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE HIGH FIRE DANGER.
SPOTTY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220>225-
228>230.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ220.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ083>086.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
FIRE WEATHER...MOZLEY/PETERSEN
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