325
FXUS65 KPUB 181106
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
506 AM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY, WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
FIRE DANGER FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND
LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.
- MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES COMBINING WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK FOR
THE PLAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
CURRENTLY...QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ARRIVED EARLIER, AND FLOW
AT THE SURFACE HAS BEEN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST.
THESE WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD DECREASING TOWARDS SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD,
WITH 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW DEGREE OF
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IS FORECAST THROUGH
MORNING.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WEAK ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
IMPACT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
DEVELOP VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE, INTO THE RATON MESA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 40 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING, AS THE WEAK UPPER ENERGY DROPS INTO
NEW MEXICO. ACROSS THE PLAINS, FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP COOLER AIR IN
PLACE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE
PLAINS.
OVERNIGHT, UPPER RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL BUILD EAST INTO
COLORADO. ONCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT SOUTH INTO
NEW MEXICO, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY MORNING.LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS, AND 40S FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
WITH HIGH FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY, AND INCREASED ACTIVE WEATHER
SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE WEAKER, AND
ONLY VERY SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS, THEN TRACKING EAST INTO THE PLAINS, DISSIPATING BY
LATE EVENING. SMALL HAIL, LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WITH FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING SOUTHWESTERLY. HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. DRY AIR WILL SPREAD EASTWARD BY EARLY
MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THEN DOWN INTO THE PLAINS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. ENHANCED MIXING WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS THE PLAINS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS NEAR 40 TO 45 MPH WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA, WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING UNDER 10 PERCENT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
FAR EAST THE DRY AIR MAKES IT. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE
DRYLINE OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER, AND THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
EXCLUDES THE EASTERN COUNTIES. IF THE DRY AIR PUSHES FURTHER
EAST, THOSE COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. IN ADDITION,
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ONE OR
TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. AGAIN, IF THE DRY AIR PUSHES
FURTHER EAST, ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE EAST INTO KANSAS.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY
MESSY FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGING
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, NORTH INTO
UTAH, WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND COLD FRONTS LOOK TO IMPACT THE REGION,
WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE FIRST POTENTIAL WAVE AND COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ON
THE PLAINS. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE ON MONDAY MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF ACTIVITY TO THE PLAINS, ALONG WITH STRONGER STORMS. CONTINUED
WAVES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
STORMS. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED ON THE PLAINS IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH, AND PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND HEAVY RAIN COULD BE
POSSIBLE. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, WITH 80S
FOR THE PLAINS. WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE AN UPTICK IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME AND SPREAD
IN THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THINGS TO SHIFT AND CHANGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
KCOS AND KPUB...
VFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING, AFFECTING BOTH KCOS AND KPUB. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK BETWEEN 15-16Z AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND FROM THE EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS AT BOTH TERMINALS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WINDS DECREASE TOWARDS 06Z.
KALS...
KALS WILL SEE BREEZY EAST WINDS AT THE VERY START OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD WHICH WILL BE QUICKLY DECREASING AND SHIFTING OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
TERMINAL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR VCSH
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SKIES WILL STAY VFR
HOWEVER, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS AGAIN THIS
EVENING. -KT
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 AM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES. MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 40 TO 45 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY VALUES UNDER 10
PERCENT AND VERY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S
TO PRODUCE THE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL
BE HOW FAR EAST THE DRIER AIR PUSHES, AND COUNTIES OUT NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF THE DRYLINE IS PUSHED INTO
KANSAS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ220.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>225-227>233.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT
FIRE WEATHER...MOZLEY
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