077
FXUS65 KPUB 181918
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
118 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH FIRE DANGER REST OF TODAY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DUE TO
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.
- WARMER FRIDAY, SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITONS IN THE
INTERIOR MTNS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY.
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER ALL
MOUNTAINS, SLV, AND MOST OF I-25 CORRIDOR REGION SATURDAY; HOT
OVER THE PLAINS (100S). ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS.
- MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK: DRY AND WARM MOUNTAINS WITH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH A
CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE PLAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RH VALUES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS, OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED STORMS COULD OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT...
DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S PLAINS AND 40S SAN
LUIS VALLEY.
TOMORROW...
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS,
AND SAN JUANS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STORM OVER THE PIKES
PEAK REGION, OTHERWISE WARMER TOMORROW WITH MID 90S PLAINS AND
MID 80S VALLEYS. SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE SLV AND CENTRAL MTN REGIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
SATURDAY...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION THIS DAY. THIS
WILL SET UP A LEE TROUGH OVER THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. WEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY BREEZY WEST WIND WILL OCCUR AND WITH COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING, IT WILL GET HOT ONCE AGAIN. FOR THIS REASON, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE REGION THIS DAY.
FARTHER EAST, A DRYLINE IS LIKELY GOING TO SET UP OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS AND THIS IN TURN MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING, IN WHICH ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE. SPC HAS EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE PLAINS IN MARGINAL/SLIGHT
RISK.
SUNDAY INTO MID WEEK...
IN GENERAL, IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND HOT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS, AND THE PLAINS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
GIVEN THE HOT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WITH AREAS ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SLV HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
OVER THE PLAINS, MODEST NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT THE MID LEVELS, AND
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO MOVE OVER THE PLAINS
WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW TO OCCUR.
THIS METEOROLOGICAL REGIME WILL KEEP THE PLAINS UNSTABLE, AND
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST DAYS. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, ROTATING STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME PERIODS.
OVERALL, THE DETERMINISTIC PATTERN ALONG WITH THE STATISTICAL DESI
GUIDANCE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD LOOK FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP
OVER THE PLAINS. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
SOME THUNDER WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF KALS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM KALS TO
WARRANT PUTTING IT IN THE TAF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
FOR FRIDAY, SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY.
FOR SATURDAY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS, THE VALLEYS AND THE PLAINS
MAINLY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. IT WILL BE VERY HOT ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS.
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD THROUGH MID WEEK, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, RH VALUES WILL BE CRITICAL EACH
DAY, AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>225-227>233.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH
FIRE WEATHER...HODANISH
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