321
FXUS65 KPUB 191719
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1119 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- HIGHEST CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE, ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY.
- DRY OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER THE PLAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
TODAY...
A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S-90S ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD, GIVING US
A 1-DAY BREAK FROM ANY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MEANWHILE, A
MODEST SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH, LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT-LIVED, PUSHING
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AND DISSIPATING, WITH ONE OR TWO STORMS
POSSIBLE OVER PIKES PEAK AS WELL. MAIN STORM IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS, AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE WILL STILL BE
FAIRLY LARGE OVER AND NEAR I-25, ONLY IMPROVING CLOSER TO THE KANSAS
BORDER. IF ANY STORMS MANAGE TO MAKE IT A BIT FURTHER EAST, CLOSER
TO BACA OR PROWERS COUNTIES, THEY COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MORE
MOIST AIR AND INTENSIFY FOR A SHORT TIME, BUT EVEN IN THAT CASE
WOULD PROBABLY JUST SEE STRONGER WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL.
SATURDAY...
A BRIEF DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO OUR
NORTH, WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF COLORADO, WITH A FEW DIFFERENT HAZARDS AT PLAY.
FIRST, BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MIX DOWN OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ADJACENT MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. PAIRED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT
THE SURFACE, WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR CWA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING UP MORE MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF REGION, ASSISTING IN DRYLINE FORMATION. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE WHERE THAT BOUNDARY SETS UP, PUSHING
EAST LATER IN THE EVENING. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THE DRYLINE
MIXES IN THE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH EXPECTED DEWPOINTS AND SHEAR,
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
OUTLOOKED BY THE SPC.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE
INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION, KEEPING BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLED IN
ACROSS OUR AREA. OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS, CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK. FOR THE PLAINS, MODELS INDICATE MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW AT
THE MID-LEVELS, WITH PERSIST UPSLOPING POSSIBLE AT THE SURFACE.
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH HIGHEST
CERTAINTY CLOSER TO THE CO-KS BORDER. WITH A FEW SURFACE BOUNDARIES
EXPECTED TO SET UP IN THE AREA, COUPLED WITH A DECENT SHEAR PROFILE
AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME DECENTLY UNSTABLE AIR, STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE ON THE TABLE MOST AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME HIGH BASED THUNDER
AFFECTING KCOS AND KALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
STILL EXPECTING A VERY ACTIVE WEEK, FIRE WEATHER-WISE, ACROSS THE
REGION.
FRIDAY: SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE A
BIT WEAKER THROUGHOUT THE DAY, SO NO HIGHLIGHTS NEEDED AS OF NOW.
SATURDAY: CRITICAL CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AS
STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MOVE IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA, AND RH VALUES WILL DIVE
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA, INCLUDING ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
VALLEYS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS DUE TO GAP FLOW AND DRY,
DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
SUNDAY ONWARDS: DRY, WARM CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGHOUT MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH LOW RH VALUES AND FREQUENTLY GUSTY WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS TIME, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEK, THOUGH AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST
EAST OF THE SANGRES AND OUT TOWARDS THE KANSAS BORDER.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
COZ220>225-227>233.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...HODANISH
FIRE WEATHER...GARBEROGLIO
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