584
FXUS65 KPUB 191910
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
110 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, STRONGEST STORMS OVER
EASTERN PLAINS.
- SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW MAINLY EAST OF I-25. HATCHED
HAIL AND WIND FCST'D BY SPC, ISOLD TORNADO CANT BE RULED OUT.
- RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL MTNS/VALLEYS AND WESTERN HALF OF
PLAINS.
- SUNDAY, MAINLY DRY. ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS OVER THE REGION.
- MONDAY INTO FRIDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER PLAINS, DRY MTNS WITH
SEVERAL DAYS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
REST OF TODAY...
SPC CONTINUES MARGINAL RISK OVER REGION MAINLY OVER FAR EASTERN
PLAINS FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. CANT RULE OUT A NON SVR STORM
OR TWO OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLD CGS MAIN ISSUE.
TOMORROW....
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
TOMORROW. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR LARGE DAMAGING HAIL,
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A LOW END THREAT FOR TORNADO
ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST
THE MOISTURE CAN MAKE IT BACK TOWARDS THE MTNS. AT THIS TIME THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS. A REVIEW OF THE HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS QUITE A FEW
ROTATING STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO WITH
HODOGRAPHS FAVORING SUPERCELL ACTIVITY.
THE OTHER CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT OVER ALL OF THE MTNS AND VALLEYS
AND THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE PLAINS. RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOCATIONS AND WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY 20 TO 30 KNTS PLAINS AND 30 TO 45 KNTS MTNS AND VALLEYS.
STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE HOT AGAIN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. 100F VALUES
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEYS FROM PUEBLO EAST TO THE
KS BORDER. 90S ELSEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS, AND 80S TO AROUND 90F
VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
COVER MOST OF THE REGION AGAIN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
WELL NORTH OF US50 ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. IT WILL BE HOT ONCE
AGAIN, BUT NOT AS HOT AS TOMORROW.
FROM MONDAY INTO LATE WEEK...
WE COULD SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
ANS SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. SHEAR AND CAPE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING STORMS, AND EXPECT WE MAY SEE A FEW DAYS OF SEVERE STORMS
OVER THE PLAINS. WITH THE NW FLOW, ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE A TENDENCY TO TURN TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN FLOW AND THIS MAY
PUT THE URBAN CORRIDOR CITIES UNDER THE GUN FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING
THIS PERIOD.
OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS AND VALLEYS, IT WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS AND EXPECT WE MAY SEE SEVERAL DAYS OF FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME HIGH BASED THUNDER
AFFECTING KCOS AND KALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
TOMORROW... CRITICAL CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AS
STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MOVE IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA, AND RH VALUES WILL DIVE
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
INCLUDING ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND VALLEYS AS WELL AS PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS DUE TO GAP FLOW AND DRY, DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
SUNDAY ONWARDS: DRY, WARM CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGHOUT MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH LOW RH VALUES AND FREQUENTLY GUSTY WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS TIME, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEK.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
COZ220>225-227>233.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH
FIRE WEATHER...HODANISH
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