427
FXUS65 KPUB 041148
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
548 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHTER WINDS GIVES US A BREAK FROM CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY.
- SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
- MOISTURE INCREASES SLOWLY IN THE MOUNTAINS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK,
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1256 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WINDS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER ALOFT TODAY AS OUR REGION SITS BETWEEN A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH, ALONG WITH AN INCOMING
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT WILL TURN
EASTERLY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR SOME BETTER UPSLOPING
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL GIVE US A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS OVERHEAD, GIVING US ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS MOVING
INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY MID-AFTERNOON, WITH GENERAL ACTIVITY
FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE EAST-SOUTHEAST. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL MAINLY BE EL PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES, WITH LESSER
BUT NON-ZERO CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. THESE AREAS COULD BE SEEING 1000+ J/KG OF CAPE PAIRED
WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF SHEAR FOR A FEW HOUR IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, WHILE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS,
WILL STILL BE LACKING. THEREFORE, MOST LIKELY IMPACT THREATS WILL BE
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS, ALONG WITH THE LOWER CHANCE FOR HAIL OUT OF
STRONGER STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 80S-90S, WARMEST FURTHER
EAST. OVERNIGHT, PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILD TEMPS, WITH DECENT RH
RECOVERY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AROUND 60-65 PERCENT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1256 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION, WITH WEAK
TO MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS, ALLOWING
FOR DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INITIALLY, STORMS
WILL BE HIGH-BASED, WITH BEST CHANCES FOR IMPACTS RELATING TO DRY
LIGHTNING AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
INCREASE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE CONTENT AND PWATS
RISE. THIS WILL BEING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS, ALONG
WITH FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FOR ANY BURN AREAS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
AT KCOS, VFR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS
TURNING SELY AFTER 15Z. WILL CARRY A PROB30 FROM 21Z-24Z FOR
-TSRA, WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KTS THE MAIN STORM THREAT. VFR
THEN OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
AT KPUB, VFR THE NEXT 24 HRS. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA IN
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, THOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL TURN SELY AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND
SUSPECT WE'LL SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS MID-LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
AT KALS, VFR WITH SW WINDS 9-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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