188
FXUS65 KPUB 042039
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
239 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
- A SLOW INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE BRINGS A SLOW INCREASE IN
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TO BE DRY, INITIALLY, LEADING TO INCREASING
CONCERNS FOR NEW FIRE STARTS.
- WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN SETTING UP LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MODERATING
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION, AS LAST NIGHTS EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES
TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. LAST NIGHTS PASSING WAVE AND FRONT
BROUGHT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO ASPEN
ACRES BURN AREA, WITH DEW PTS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S HELPING TO
GOOSE UP HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH THE MORNING. FURTHER WEST, DEW
PTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STARTING TO MIX OUT ACROSS ACROSS EASTERN MTNS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY, WITH THE WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT, WE ARE SEEING A
FEW SPOTTY AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MTNS AT THIS TIME. FURTHER EAST, DEW PTS ARE IN THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS, REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS POPPING UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PARK, TELLER AND
JEFFCO/DOUGLAS COUNTIES AT OF 1 PM. ALSO, CURRENT RADAR DATA IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF ANY STRONG SMOKE PLUMES DISSEMINATING FROM THE ASPEN
ACRES BURN AREA AT THIS TIME.
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, LATEST MODEL DATA KEEPS GENERALLY WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BUILDS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WEAK FLOW
ALOFT KEEPS THE BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER EASTERN MTNS AND PLAINS,
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN MTNS FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. STORMS PUSH ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS AND ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO BE HIGHER BASED, PRODUCING MORE
VIRGA AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THAN WETTING RAINS. THIS, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING AND NEW FIRE STARTS, WILL BE CONCERN FOR THOSE
FIGHTING THE ONGOING WILDFIRES, AS WELL AS FOR AREA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT,
WITH LEAN AVAILABLE RESOURCES. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
LATEST CAMS ARE ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE RATON MESA LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING CLEARING
SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE PLAINS, AND IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY TO BE GENERALLY AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND IN THE 60S, 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SLOW MOISTENING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE ROCKIES WITHING
WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDS INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ENSEMBLE MEAN DATA FROM ECS, GEFS AND GEPS INDICATING
PWATS INCREASING TO 100 TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION,
PEAKING TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF DAILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WORK WEEK. WHILE PWATS DO INCREASE, SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, IS LACKING, WITH STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW FLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING HAMPERING FIRE
FIGHTING. WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY, THERE
WILL BE A FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR RECENT BURN AREAS, AS IT ONLY TAKES
ONE STRONG STORM OVER THE WRONG PLACE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS, WHEN DEALING
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BURN AREAS. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INCREASING CHANCE OF CONVECTION, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, MODEL DATA IS TRENDING
TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN, WITH MODEST
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING RETROGRADES BACK ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN.
DECREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS, AND INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH
GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO KEEP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPIATED AT COS, PUB AND ALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT COS AND PUB WILL
KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH BEST CHANCES OF STORMS AT THE TERMINALS
BEING AT COS, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40KTS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT. WHILE STORMS MAY NOT DEVELOP AT PUB, GUSTY
OUTFLOWS WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AT ALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
WITH BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
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