685
FXUS65 KPUB 042044 CCA
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
244 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
- A SLOW INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE BRINGS A SLOW INCREASE IN
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TO BE DRY, INITIALLY, LEADING TO INCREASING
CONCERNS FOR NEW FIRE STARTS.
- WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN SETTING UP LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MODERATING
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION, AS LAST NIGHTS EMBEDDED WAVE
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. LAST NIGHTS PASSING
WAVE AND FRONT BROUGHT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
INTO ASPEN ACRES BURN AREA, WITH DEW PTS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
HELPING TO GOOSE UP HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH THE MORNING. FURTHER
WEST, DEW PTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING TO MIX OUT ACROSS
ACROSS EASTERN MTNS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY, WITH THE
WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT, WE ARE ONLY SEEING A FEW SPOTTY AREA OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MTNS AT THIS TIME. FURTHER EAST, DEW PTS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S
ACROSS THE PLAINS, REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS POPPING UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PARK, TELLER AND
JEFFCO/DOUGLAS COUNTIES AT OF 1 PM. ALSO, CURRENT RADAR DATA IS
NOT INDICATIVE OF ANY STRONG SMOKE PLUMES DISSEMINATING FROM THE
ASPEN ACRES BURN AREA AT THIS TIME.
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, LATEST MODEL DATA KEEPS GENERALLY WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BUILDS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WEAK FLOW
ALOFT KEEPS THE BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER EASTERN MTNS AND PLAINS,
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN MTNS FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. STORMS PUSH ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS AND ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO BE HIGHER BASED, PRODUCING MORE
VIRGA AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THAN WETTING RAINS. THIS, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING AND NEW FIRE STARTS, WILL BE CONCERN FOR THOSE
FIGHTING THE ONGOING WILDFIRES, AS WELL AS FOR AREA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT,
WITH LEAN AVAILABLE RESOURCES. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
LATEST CAMS ARE ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE RATON MESA LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING CLEARING
SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE PLAINS, AND IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY TO BE GENERALLY AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND IN THE 60S, 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SLOW MOISTENING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE ROCKIES WITHING
WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDS INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ENSEMBLE MEAN DATA FROM ECS, GEFS AND GEPS ARE
INDICATING PWATS INCREASING TO 100 TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS
THE REGION, PEAKING TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE PWATS DO INCREASE,
SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, IS LACKING, WITH STILL SOME CONCERNS FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW
FLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING HAMPERING FIRE FIGHTING. WHILE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY, THERE WILL BE A FLASH FLOOD
CONCERN FOR RECENT BURN AREAS, AS IT ONLY TAKES ONE STRONG STORM
OVER THE WRONG PLACE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS, WHEN DEALING WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN BURN AREAS. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
CHANCE OF CONVECTION, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, MODEL DATA IS TRENDING
TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN, WITH MODEST
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING RETROGRADES BACK ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN.
DECREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS, AND INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH
GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO KEEP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPIATED AT COS, PUB AND ALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT COS AND PUB WILL
KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH BEST CHANCES OF STORMS AT THE TERMINALS
BEING AT COS, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40KTS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT. WHILE STORMS MAY NOT DEVELOP AT PUB, GUSTY
OUTFLOWS WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AT ALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
WITH BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page