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FXUS65 KPUB 060452
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1052 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLOW INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE BRINGS AN INCREASE IN DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO BE MAINLY DRY, INITIALLY, LEADING
TO A HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR NEW FIRE STARTS, WHILE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
STORMS ALSO BRINGS INCREASING THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NEW BURN AREAS.
- A MUCH WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES MODEST WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION, AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATES
THROUGH THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. GOES
BLENDED TOTAL WATER VAPOR DATA INDICATES PWATS UP TO 50% OF NORMAL ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO, AND 50 TO 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO,
WITH BETTER AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE DESERT SW AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL
RADARS ARE INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO RANGE AT THIS TIME. AS OF 1 PM, THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ASPEN ACRES BURN AREA.
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE FLOW
ALOFT BEING WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND WEAK
NORTH TO NORTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WESTERN COLORADO AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, WITH
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TOMORROW,
WOULD EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORMS TO BE MAINLY TIED
TO OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE REMAINING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE
MORE POP AND DROP IN NATURE, WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND LIGHTNING
BEING THE MAIN THREATS. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS, CAN NOT RULE
OUT SPOTTY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH IF THIS OCCURS OVER A NEWER
BURN AREA, COULD POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT, WITH POOR SOIL CONDITIONS
LEADING TO RAPID RUNOFF. HIGHS TOMORROW TO BE AT TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
90S TO AROUND THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES IN PUSHED SOUTH AND WEST BY WAVES TRANSLATING THROUGH
THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN TIER.
THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE ROCKIES WITHIN WEAK WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. ENSEMBLE MEAN DATA FROM ECS, GEFS AND GEPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
PWATS INCREASING TO 100 TO 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION,
PEAKING TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF DAILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WORK WEEK. WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY,
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND INCREASING COVERAGE OF WETTING RAINS,
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY FOR RECENT
BURN AREAS, AS IT ONLY TAKES ONE STRONG STORM OVER THE WRONG PLACE TO
CAUSE PROBLEMS, WHEN DEALING WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BURN AREAS. WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING CHANCES OF DAILY CONVECTION,
TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE
MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN, AS UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS LATE THIS WEEK, AND
MODEL DATA INDICATING A LARGE 600DM UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, ALONG WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS PUSHED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ROCKIES.
DESPITE THE VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, GENERALLY WEAK WINDS UNDER THE
"HEAT DOME" SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT BAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM
MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS.
KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
BOTH TERMINALS. A FEW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ONE OCCURRING AT KCOS IS LOW.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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