172
FXUS65 KPUB 060635
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1235 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- MOST STORMS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE DRY, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND LIGHTNING THAT MAY CAUSE WILDFIRE ISSUES. HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD ALSO POSE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS OVER BURN SCAR AREAS.
- A MUCH WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK TODAY, AND MORE NORTHERLY THAN THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THIS SHOULD TIE MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, PARTICULARLY OUR MORE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE LACKING, AND WITHOUT ANY LARGER-SCALE FORCING, STORMS
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND HIGH-BASED. MAIN IMPACT CONCERNS WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, TO AROUND 40 MPH, ALONG WITH LIGHTNING AND
RELATED FIRE STARTS. WETTING RAINS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN, BUT
IF A STRONGER SHOWER DOES MOVE OVER AN ONGOING FIRE OR RECENT BURN
SCAR, FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TODAY AS WELL, WITH 80S OVER THE HIGH VALLEYS AND MID-90S TO
LOW-100S OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INCREASING
OVER THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT FUNNEL IN SOME HIGH MID-LEVEL PWATS. SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE PLAINS AND A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE A BIT LACKING, MEANING THAT GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY IMPACT CONCERN FROM STORMS.
LIGHTNING MAY ALSO POSE RISKS FOR FIRE STARTS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN ISN'T EXPECTED, ANY STORM THAT DROPS PRECIPITATION ON A
NEW BURN SCAR COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, DUE TO POOR MOISTURE
ABSORPTION INTO THE GROUND. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN MOSTLY
STEADY, NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WHEN LOOKING AT LATER THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL START BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST, BRINGING IN HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT. AFTER ONE
MORE DAY OF SCATTERED PRECIP ON THURSDAY, THE REGION WILL QUICKLY
DRY OUT. NBM TEMPERATURES SHOW US CLIMBING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS, WITH INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF THE PLAINS REACHING INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY. FUELS WILL CERTAINLY DRY OUT AS RH DROPS,
BUT THE ABSENCE OF ANY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT ANY WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM
MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS.
KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
BOTH TERMINALS. A FEW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ONE OCCURRING AT KCOS IS LOW.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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