644
FXUS65 KPUB 070504
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1104 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME MOISTURE INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
- DRY AND HOT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS INCREASING SOMEWHAT.
- INCREASING MOISTURE BY MID MONTH (MONSOON FLOW)
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED
OVER THE HIGHER PEAK OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING BY EARLY EVENING.
WIND FLOW WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER MOST OF
THE REGION TODAY (WHICH WILL PUSH THE SMOKE NORTHWARD), BUT WILL
WEAKEN BY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
STARTING TOMORROW, AND LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS, MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW. IT WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS THE
REGION ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, AND PREDOMINANTLY
FROM A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OVER THE PLAINS, AND A WESTERLY COMPONENT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LARGER VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
FOR WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD, AND ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SCATTERED TO LIKELY.
WETTING RAINS WILL LIKELY OCCUR, WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HELP WITH FIRE
ACTIVITY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER, THE RAINFALL ITSELF AND
INCREASING RH VALUES. OF COURSE, THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS. I EXPECT STORMS DURING THESE DAYS WILL
MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS AND SHOULD SURVIVE AS THE CROSS THE PLAINS AND
MOVE INTO KS BY LATE EVENING. SOME OF THE RAIN ON THE PLAINS FOR THU
AND FRI MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY.
MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN HOT, WITH SOME COOLING
ON FRIDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND, WE WILL DRY OUT AND IT SHOULD BECOME QUITE HOT ONCE
AGAIN. DESI GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER DURING
THE WEEKEND, SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN.
BY NEXT WEEK, MODELS SHOW A MONSOON FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING, AND
HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE
REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.
KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS
DURING THE LAST AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE TERMINAL.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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