966
FXUS65 KPUB 070642
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1242 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO FRIDAY,
INITIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THEN SPREADING INTO THE
PLAINS. A COUPLE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE THURSDAY ON
THE PLAINS.
- UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
PUSHING 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1236 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM EARLIER CONVECTION, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD, WITH 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS, LOWS BY MORNING IN THE 60S.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN EMBEDDED UPPER VORT
MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE, GENERATING CONVECTION BY MID
AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING. ELEVATED
CAPE, AROUND 300-500 J/KG AND VERY WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ANY
SEVERE THREAT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. LIGHTNING
MAY ALSO LEAD TO ADDITION FIRE STARTS. FOR OUR FRESH BURN SCARS,
ANY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING,
WEAKENING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVECTION
ENDING BY MIDNIGHT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT, WITH 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS, WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SEES HIGHS IN
THE 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD, WITH 60S ACROSS
THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IS A
CUT OFF UPPER LOW IN THE GFS THAT MOVES WEST INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO
OVER THE WEEKEND, WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS DEFINED AND WEAKER WITH
THIS UPPER FEATURE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A FLAT UPPER
HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA, WITH ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. MULTIPLE EMBEDDED WAVES WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON.
ALOFT, AN EMBEDDED UPPER WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS COLORADO BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION LOOKS TO INITIATE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING AND CLEARING INTO KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY
BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR ARE FORECAST, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. PWAT VALUES WILL BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY, AND
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING
COULD BE A CONCERN ON FRESH BURN SCARS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHT
COOLER, BUT ONLY BY A COUPLE DEGREES, WITH 90S TO NEAR 100 ACROSS
THE PLAINS.
A MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY. SHEAR AND CAPE CONTINUE TO
INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT STORMS TO ONCE AGAIN FIRE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, AND TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY
EVENING. AS STORMS ENCOUNTER A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, A FEW
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EAST OF I-25. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES
IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY
STRONGER STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT, WITH
MOSTLY 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE WESTERN HALF OF COLORADO, WITH CONVECTION WINDING DOWN FOR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ONE LAST UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO FIRE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE, AND THEN SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW CELLS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN HOT, WITH 90S FOR THE PLAINS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, AND TRACK EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
HEAT, WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE UPPER
90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GFS DOES BRING A WEAK CUT
OFF UPPER VORT MAX LOW BACK WEST ACROSS THE STATE, WITH LOW CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER, WITH A
COUPLE ISOLATED CELLS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE. AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
HOT, WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 100S. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH MOISTURE WORKING NORTH OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN COLORADO. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN
UPTICK IN STORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OUT WEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.
KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS
DURING THE LAST AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE TERMINAL.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page