045
FXUS65 KPUB 071939
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
139 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY,
INITIALLY FORMING OVER THE MTS BY MIDDAY THEN SPREADING
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
- INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK, AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
FLAT UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN CA ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS INTO THE US SOUTHERN PLAINS.
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MORE ACTIVITY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE COMPARED TO THE EASTERN MTS. TEMPS AS OF 1 PM
HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS.
TONIGHT...HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT ONGOING CONVECTION WILL PUSH
EAST THROUGH 9 PM, THEN PERCOLATE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS NORTH
OF THE PALMER DIVIDE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ANY
FLOODING ISSUES FOR AREA BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE,
BUT OF COURSE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY STORM OVERACHIEVERS.
MAIN STORM THREATS CONTINUE TO BE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE PLAINS, AND
MODERATE OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY FOR AREA WILDFIRES. FINALLY,
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS PROGGED TO PUSH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO, WHICH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
LLVL SUPPORT FOR ACTIVITY TOMORROW.
TOMORROW...UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH LLVL E-SE WINDS
SUPPORTING WHAT SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING FOR A FEW
DAYS, WHICH IS A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALL
ALONG THE EASTERN MTS. BEST TIME WINDOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM, WITH THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM. THEREFORE, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR FROM NOON UNTIL 8
PM, DUE TO THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A STORM TO TRACK ACROSS THE
NEWLY BURNED AREA AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE, CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AND THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ONE OR TWO OF THOSE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE ACROSS KIOWA, BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 90S TO AROUND 100F FOR
THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE UPPER PATTERN,
WITH THE FLAT RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THU. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WED NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT, WITH A MILD NIGHT ANTICIPATED. A STRONGER UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE STATE ON THU, WITH HI-RES MODELS PREDICTING CAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG AND INCREASING BULK SHEAR FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST
SPC GUIDANCE HAS MUCH OF THE PLAINS OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT CATEGORY, SO WHILE CONVECTION WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR RAINFALL RATES ACROSS AREA BURN SCARS, FARTHER EAST DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE CONCERN. LATEST GUIDANCE IS
LEANING TOWARDS HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FOR THU,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST, WITH 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS. ANOTHER CONCERN TO NOTE, CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAKE A RETURN TO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THU
AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY...UPPER HIGH STARTS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY,
LEADING TO DRYING ACROSS UT AND WESTERN CO. LONG RANGE MODELS DO
SHOW ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL US
PLAINS AND EASTERN CO, KEEPING STORM CHANCES IN PLAY FOR THE CO
PLAINS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS. SPOTTY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK,
PROVIDING FOR HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THIS MOVEMENT DOES
OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME MONSOON MOISTURE TO START CREEPING NORTHWARD
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THIS TIME, EFFECTS ARE NEGLIGIBLE
IN THE EXTENDED, BUT THERE REMAINS SOME HOPE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE MONTH. MOORE
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FIRE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BY MIDDAY, THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS TERMINALS IN THE 19Z-21Z TIME
FRAME. PLAN ON GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 KTS FROM APPROX.
21Z-THROUGH 03Z AT ALL THREE MAIN TAF SITES, THEN SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND DIURNAL IN DIRECTION BY 06Z. EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ079-080-086.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE
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