859
FXUS65 KPUB 080451
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1051 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY,
INITIALLY FORMING OVER THE MTS BY MIDDAY THEN SPREADING
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
- INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK, AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
FLAT UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN CA ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS INTO THE US SOUTHERN PLAINS.
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MORE ACTIVITY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE COMPARED TO THE EASTERN MTS. TEMPS AS OF 1 PM
HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS.
TONIGHT...HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT ONGOING CONVECTION WILL PUSH
EAST THROUGH 9 PM, THEN PERCOLATE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS NORTH
OF THE PALMER DIVIDE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ANY
FLOODING ISSUES FOR AREA BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE,
BUT OF COURSE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY STORM OVERACHIEVERS.
MAIN STORM THREATS CONTINUE TO BE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE PLAINS, AND
MODERATE OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY FOR AREA WILDFIRES. FINALLY,
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS PROGGED TO PUSH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO, WHICH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
LLVL SUPPORT FOR ACTIVITY TOMORROW.
TOMORROW...UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH LLVL E-SE WINDS
SUPPORTING WHAT SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING FOR A FEW
DAYS, WHICH IS A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALL
ALONG THE EASTERN MTS. BEST TIME WINDOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM, WITH THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM. THEREFORE, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR FROM NOON UNTIL 8
PM, DUE TO THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A STORM TO TRACK ACROSS THE
NEWLY BURNED AREA AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE, CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AND THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ONE OR TWO OF THOSE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE ACROSS KIOWA, BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 90S TO AROUND 100F FOR
THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE UPPER PATTERN,
WITH THE FLAT RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THU. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WED NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT, WITH A MILD NIGHT ANTICIPATED. A STRONGER UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE STATE ON THU, WITH HI-RES MODELS PREDICTING CAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG AND INCREASING BULK SHEAR FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST
SPC GUIDANCE HAS MUCH OF THE PLAINS OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT CATEGORY, SO WHILE CONVECTION WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR RAINFALL RATES ACROSS AREA BURN SCARS, FARTHER EAST DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE CONCERN. LATEST GUIDANCE IS
LEANING TOWARDS HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FOR THU,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST, WITH 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS. ANOTHER CONCERN TO NOTE, CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAKE A RETURN TO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THU
AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY...UPPER HIGH STARTS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY,
LEADING TO DRYING ACROSS UT AND WESTERN CO. LONG RANGE MODELS DO
SHOW ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL US
PLAINS AND EASTERN CO, KEEPING STORM CHANCES IN PLAY FOR THE CO
PLAINS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS. SPOTTY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK,
PROVIDING FOR HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THIS MOVEMENT DOES
OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME MONSOON MOISTURE TO START CREEPING NORTHWARD
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THIS TIME, EFFECTS ARE NEGLIGIBLE
IN THE EXTENDED, BUT THERE REMAINS SOME HOPE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE MONTH. MOORE
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 PM
MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KALS...VFR CONDITION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND COULD IMPACT THE
TERMINAL. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.
KCOS AND KPUB...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z TURNING WINDS EASTERLY AROUND 10 KTS.
THESE WINDS WILL RETURN TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BY MID AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS INTO THE
EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ079-080-086.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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