035
FXUS65 KPUB 081142
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
542 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY AND MOVING OVER THE PLAINS.
- FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS PERSIST FOR THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR.
- SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS,
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
WEAK ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT, BUT AN INCOMING SURGE OF COOLER AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE, MAINLY OVER OUR
EASTERN MOUNTAINS, BY AROUND 2PM, BEFORE ACTIVITY CONTINUES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOME AREAS COULD SEE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, WARRANTING A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA AROUND THE ASPEN ACRES FIRE, 12PM THROUGH
8PM. SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT MORE PLENTIFUL THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS,
WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
CLOSER TO THE KS BORDER, WHERE MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING ARE
BOTH A BIT MORE ABUNDANT. MEANWHILE, TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH 80S OVER THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 90S TO LOW-
100S OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. STORMS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT, WITH MILD LOWS AND GOOD MOISTURE RECOVERY HEADING INTO
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY, WITH
A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE AS THE WAVE PASSES AND PUSHES A
WEAK FRONT DOWN, SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
LATEST SPC GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER MOST
OF OUR EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, WITH 80S
TO MID-90S FOR MOST AREAS.
FOR FRIDAY, EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE PLAINS, COMBINED WITH A
PASSING WAVE TO OUR NORTHEAST, WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS, ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, IF A
FEW DEGREES COOLER OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
LOOKING INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PROGRESSIVELY HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. WINDS APPEAR
LIGHT ENOUGH, FOR NOW, TO AVOID ANY MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT
THE HOPE IS FOR MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE IN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES SHIFTING EAST INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
PRIMARY WINDOW WILL BE FROM 20Z-02Z FOR -TSRA THOUGH CIGS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL RETURN TO A NORTH OR NORTHWEST
DIRECTION AFTER 06Z. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ079-080-086.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO/KT
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...KT
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