230
FXUS65 KPUB 082332
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
532 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY AND MOVING OVER THE PLAINS.
- FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS PERSIST FOR THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR.
- SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING, THEN AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, AS
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO STARTING
MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
UPDATED TO ADD BLOWING DUST FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING WINDS 50 TO
60 MPH ACROSS THE VALLEY, AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST, MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY, ARE SEEING VERY LOW
VISIBILITIES, LESS THAN ONE MILE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
FLAT UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM SOUTHERN CA
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE US SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER
SHORTWAVES SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL KICK OFF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY...A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ALL STORMS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST AND ARE
STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ANY STRENGTH, AT LEAST INITIALLY. AS OF 1 PM,
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS. MAIN PLAINS LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY HIT
100F LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERNS THIS EVENING WILL BE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ACROSS THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR, AND DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY ON RADAR,
FEEL THAT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AA FIRE IS A GOOD THING THIS
EVENING THROUGH 8 PM. GIVEN HOW FRESH THE BURN IS AND HOW
HYDROPHOBIC THE GROUND LIKELY IS, ANY STORM CROSSING THE AREA WILL
BE A CONCERN. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AA FIRE
BY 8 PM. SECOND, SPC HAD PAINTED A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITHIN A SLIGHT, AND EVEN HAVE AN ENHANCED TOUCHING KIOWA
COUNTY. THERE IS SOME FAVORABLE CAPE FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT, BUT
DOES NOT NECESSARILY SYNC UP WITH THE BEST FORECAST BULK SHEAR.
REGARDLESS, AS STORMS PUSH EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE THEY MAY
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE AND SOME FAVORABLE
SHEAR, ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. BEST TIME WINDOW OUT EAST LOOKS TO BE NOW UNTIL 8 PM, AND A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CROWLEY, OTERO, KIOWA,
BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES. PLAN ON MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE
PLAINS.
TOMORROW...SIMILAR SET-UP FOR THURSDAY, THOUGH A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER, AND HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH MORE FAVORABLE CAPE AND
BULK SHEAR FOR THE PLAINS. THEREFORE, WITH THE CONTINUING THREAT OF
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MTS, ISSUED ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ASPEN ACRES
FIRE FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACROSS THE EAST, SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK PAINTS MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITHIN A SLIGHT AREA, AND IT
ACTUALLY LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVE. AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, SOME
SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT AT THIS TIME WINDS ARE A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS. FARTHER NORTH FOR FIRE ZONE 220,
AFFECTING THE WILLOW FIRE, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST AS WELL WITH GUSTY WINDS DEFINITELY THERE, AND ONLY
QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW THE RH GETS IN THE AFTN. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PLAN ON A MILD NIGHT WITH MODERATE RH
RECOVERY, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS,
AND 50S TO AROUND 60F FOR THE PLAINS. UPPER HIGH STARTS TO AMPLIFY
FRIDAY, LEADING TO DRYING ACROSS UT AND WESTERN CO. LONG RANGE
MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US PLAINS AND EASTERN CO, KEEPING STORM CHANCES IN PLAY FOR
THE CO PLAINS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS,
AND MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS. SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, AS WELL AS ACROSS
LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK,
PROVIDING FOR LINGERING HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THOUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY, THE TRACK OF THE UPPER HIGH DOES ALLOW FOR SOME
MONSOON MOISTURE TO START CREEPING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN CO
STARTING MONDAY, WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SPILLING OVER ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MOORE
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
KALS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING WITH GUST WINDS POSSIBLE. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES BY EARLY AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
KCOS AND KPUB...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY AT KPUB THROUGH AROUND 02-03Z. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 35-40 KTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
BOTH TERMINALS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 40 KTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ079-080-
086.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ079-080-086.
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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