026
FXUS65 KPUB 091137
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
537 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW, EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS.
- FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER BURN SCAR AREAS,
PARTICULARLY AROUND THE ASPEN ACRES FIRE.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, WITH
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING TO THE MOUNTAINS NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
TODAY'S WEATHER WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND A PASSING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HELP INITIATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FIRST FIRE SHORTLY AFTER
MIDDAY, MAINLY OVER AND NEAR OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS. INITIAL
CONVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW-MOVING, WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW
AT THE MID-LEVELS. AS SUCH, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR HIGH RISK AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 12-8 PM FOR THE ASPEN ACRES BURN AREA. BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON,
CONVECTION WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST AS A NORTHERLY SURGE MOVES DOWN
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND LIFT,
ALLOWING FOR STORMS TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE GENEROUS WITH INSTABILITY, PLACING 500 J/KG OF
CAPE OVER I-25 BY MID-AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY
THE KS BORDER. ALL IN ALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR
A GROUPING OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS, HAIL, AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS, DEPARTING
OUR AREA PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT OR SO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S-90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S-
60S FOR THE PLAINS AND 40S FOR THE VALLEYS. FINALLY, THERE WILL BE A
FEW HOURS OF SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, GIVING US
ENOUGH LIFT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERLY
UPSLOPE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL,
HELPING ADVECT IN WARM, MOIST AIR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN FIRE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE PUSHING EAST AND
INTENSIFYING. THERE IS CURRENTLY A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL SET IN ACROSS SE COLORADO, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
UPPER-90S OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MORE SPOTTY FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON,
BUT NOTHING LOOKS PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD DUE TO WEAK WINDS BENEATH
THE HIGH. AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES SLOWLY MOVING EAST, SOME
MOISTURE WILL START RETURNING TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14-15Z THIS MORNING AT
KCOS AND KPUB UNDER VFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT KCOS AND KPUB THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTO BOTH TAF SITES AFTER 19-20Z. SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
45 KTS AND VFR TO BRIEF MVFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF HEAVY RAIN
IMPACTS THE TERMINALS. SOME SMALL HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING AT THE TAF SITES REMAINS LOW AT
THIS POINT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF BOTH TERMINALS BY
01-02Z WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
KALS WILL ALSO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN SOME BLOWING DUST
POSSIBLE AGAIN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
01Z WITH WINDS SETTLING DOWN OVERNIGHT AS VFR CLOUDINESS CLEARS
OUT. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ079-080-086.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...KT
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