695
FXUS65 KPUB 100529
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1129 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
- FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER BURN SCAR AREAS,
PARTICULARLY AROUND THE ASPEN ACRES FIRE.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, WITH
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING TO ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MODEST
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WITH A MINOR
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE FASTER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR AND GOES BLENDED TOTAL
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRYING ACROSS GREAT BASIN AND INTO
WESTERN COLORADO, WITH PWATS OF 40-60% OF NORMAL, WITH PWATS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 100 TO 120 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. REGIONAL RADARS ALREADY LIGHTING UP WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THE
EASTERN MTNS AND PIKES PEAK REGION AS OF 1230 PM.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREADING EAST INTO A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING, WHERE BEST CAPE, DCAPE AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A MCS ROLLING INTO WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH AMPLE DCAPE
IN PLACE, WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH, WILL BE A CONCERN FOR STORMS
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN
DIAMETER AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. WHILE
SOME DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ASPEN ACRES BURN AREA WITHIN THE MODEST
WESTERLY FLOW, CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONGER CELL PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINING IN PLACE UNTIL 8
PM. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BRINGING BACK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS PLAINS
WITHIN EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW, KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS AT
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE PLAINS, WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MODEST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PROGGED ACROSS THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY, WITH WEAK EASTERLY SFC-H7 KEEPING MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN MTNS AND PLAINS, WHILE DRIER AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. LATEST HIGH RES
MODELS INDICATE CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE EASTERN MTNS INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY SPREAD EAST INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS ONCE AGAIN, WHERE THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE EASTERN MTNS TOMORROW WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ASPEN ACRES BURN AREA,
LEADING TO MORE DAY OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 12-8PM.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
FOR THE WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY, LEADING TO WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODEST EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT PUSHING THE BEST MOISTURE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTNS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH CONVECTION WOULD BE MAINLY HIGH BASED, PRODUCING MORE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS THAN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS ONCE AGAIN. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOME 5-10F ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 90S TO LOWER
100S ACROSS THE PLAINS, IN THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, AND IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE HIGH MTNS
VALLEYS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE REGION, HOWEVER, CURRENT FORECAST FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA BEING
THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER.
FOR THE BECOMING AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER HIGH
AND "HEAT DOME" IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST, WITH MODEST EASTERLY FLOW REMAINING PROGGED ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WHILE MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL KEEP DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND ALLOW FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE PUSHING
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN INTO WESTERN COLORADO.
WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS AND
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MODEST, CAN'T RULE OUT SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) THROUGH FRIDAY
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR KALS BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM RISK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN SPREAD EAST TO KCOS AND KPUB BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 40 KTS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ079-080-086.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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