083
FXUS65 KPUB 100728
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
128 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS EAST OF
I-25.
- FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER ASPEN ACRES
FIRE, ESPECIALLY FROM EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON.
- STILL ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED, HIGH BASED
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY, WITH
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS A FIRE CONCERN.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS BUILD SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, BEFORE
MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES POTENTIALLY RETURN TO
MAINLY AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MID-LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
STILL SOME LINGERING WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH CURRENT TRAJECTORY TAKING MOST ACTIVITY
OUT OF THE STATE BY SUNRISE. ONE MORE WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA TODAY, INTERACTING WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MIDDAY CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, WHICH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST ONTO THE PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUSPECT SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS TODAY PLUS SOME MODEST MID-LEVEL DRYING MAY BE THE
REASON MOST MODELS (INCLUDING SEVERAL CAMS) ARE RATHER ISOLATED
WITH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION INITIALLY, AS STORMS WAIT TO INTENSIFY
UNTIL THE REACH THE DEEPER INSTABILITY EAST OF I-25. WILL KEEP
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP FOR THE ASPEN ACRES FIRE/BURN SCAR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
IN THE EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON WINDOW, THEN MANY CAMS QUICKLY SHIFT
STORMS EAST (THOUGH A COUPLE CAMS REDEVELOP SOME ACTIVITY OVER
THE WETS IN THE EVENING). FIRE COULD CATCH A STRONG EASTERLY
OUTFLOW FROM PLAINS STORMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SEVERE RISK WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE
FAR SERN PLAINS, WHERE BEST WIND SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND
40 KTS), INSTABILITY (CAPE 1000-2000 J/KG) AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COINCIDE. MODELS SUGGEST BACA/PROWERS
COUNTIES AT GREATEST RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM, THOUGH ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE ON THE PLAINS WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF
BECOMING STRONG/SEVERE. CAMS AGAIN HINT AT SOME SORT QLCS OVER
THE FAR EAST BY EVENING, WITH AN INCREASED WIND THREAT AS
ACTIVITY PUSHES INTO KS. GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS
CONVECTION EXITS THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT.
ON SATURDAY, HEIGHTS BUILD AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
ROCKIES, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. STILL A GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEFT ON THE PLAINS SAT AFTERNOON, AND WITH AN EASTERLY
UPSLOPE WIND, SUSPECT WE WON'T COMPLETELY TURN OFF THE
CONVECTION, WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS/PIKES PEAK REGION MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF GENERALLY INCREASING LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE, SO DESPITE RATHER MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS,
EXPECT STORMS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND WEAK, WITH LIGHTNING AND
OUTFLOW WINDS THE CONCERNS. MAX TEMPS SAT WILL DRIFT UPWARD A
FEW DEGF MOST AREAS UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH GENERALLY DRY AND HOT WEATHER
UNDER THE RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HINTS TOWARD THE END
OF THE FORECAST OF 1) MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPING BACK INTO AT
LEAST WRN CO WED/THU, WITH A POTENTIAL RETURN OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND 2) WEAK UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LOW DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AS
CENTER OF UPPER HIGH SHIFTS NORTHWARD, WHICH COULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES, THOUGH BEST FORCING MAY STAY JUST
SOUTH. WILL NOTE THAT AT LEAST SOME 00Z MODELS/ENSEMBLES KEEP
ALMOST ALL MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST OF
COLORADO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH SUBTLE SHIFTS IN
RIDGE POSITION DETERMINING WHERE/IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
OVERALL, WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST AREAS OUT OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER, BUT MODEST (15-25 KT) LOW/MID LEVEL E-SE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUN-TUE SOUTH OF THE UPPER HIGH MAY GET
LOCATIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY AT LEAST CLOSE
TO CRITICAL FOR A FEW HOURS EACH AFTERNOON. HEAT WILL BE ON
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH WIDESPREAD 80S/90S, AND A FEW MAXES
PUSHING 100F ON THE PLAINS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) THROUGH FRIDAY
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR KALS BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM RISK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN SPREAD EAST TO KCOS AND KPUB BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 40 KTS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ079-080-086.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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