443
FXUS65 KPUB 251147
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
547 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO KEEP HOT TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- ANOTHER SURGE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK,
WHICH RAISES FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE BURN SCARS AND
SATURATED SOILS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 152 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
ROCKIES, WITH AN 598DM HIGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR AND GOES BLENDED TOTAL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
HAS PWATS RUNNING BETWEEN 100-125 PERCENT OF NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER
HIGH, WITH PWATS OF 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. REGIONAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING STILL HAVE A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS ONGOING OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH A
LONE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AS OF
MIDNIGHT.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, MODELS KEEP THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH IN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, KEEPING WEAK, MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS, ALONG WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE
UNDER THE HIGH, AND STRONG SUMMER SOLAR HEATING, ALL SUPPORT ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS, THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD,
THOUGH SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE RECENT BURN AREAS OF LAKE, PUEBLO AND
CUSTER COUNTIES. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN, WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 90S THROUGH THE LATE MORNING ACROSS
THE PLAINS, AND THEN TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 100S. WITH SLOWLY COOLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WE DID ADD OTERO, BENT AND
PROWERS COUNTIES TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HOT, CURRENT RECORDS ARE ALSO RATHER HIGH FOR TODAY, 94F FOR ALS IN
2023, 98F FOR COS IN 2003 AND 107F FOR PUB IN 2003.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 152 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
A SIMILAR FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY, AS THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER HIGH SLIDES A TAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF WARMING TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO,
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER 90S TO POSSIBLY 109F ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID, WE HAVE ADDED CROWLEY AND BACA COUNTIES
TO THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW
RECORDS FALL ON SUNDAY, WITH CURRENT RECORD HIGHS BEING 91F FOR ALS IN
2023, 97F FOR COS IN 1953, AND 103F FOR PUB IN 2023. AS FOR CONVECTION,
MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, TO
WORK WITH STRONG SOLAR HEATING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WEAK WESTERLY FLOW WILL
HELP TO PUSH STORMS EAST ACROSS THE HIGH MTN VALLEYS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN, WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING FOR RECENT BURN AREAS.
FOR NEXT WEEK, WEAK WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO, LEADING TO A
SLOW COOLING AND WETTING TREND ACROSS THE AREA. THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL
AT LEAST GET SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE DAILY ROUNDS OF SLOW
MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RAISE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE BURN
SCARS, AS WELL AS AREAS THAT DEVELOP SATURATED SOILS DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN DAILY STORMS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH WEAKENING ACTIVITY DRIFTING ACROSS VALLEYS/LOWER ELEVATIONS
LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT BOTH KALS AND KCOS FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA
ON STATION AT EITHER SITE IS TOO LOW TO PUT INTO A PROB30 GROUP
AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON, AND IT STILL APPEARS A WIND
SHIFT/OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL OCCUR
AT KALS AROUND 00Z AND KCOS BY 02Z, WITH NW GUSTS 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR COZ083>086-093-097-098.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ083>086-089-
093-095>099.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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