490
FXUS65 KPUB 260653 CCA
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1253 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP HOT TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES AREAWIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS
BRINGING INCREASED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY FOR BURN
AREAS.
- DRYING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1247 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND INTO THE ROCKIES, WITH A NEARLY 600DM HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR AND GOES BLENDED TOTAL
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS PWATS RUNNING BETWEEN 100-130 PERCENT
OF NORMAL (1 TO 1.2 INCHES) UNDER THE UPPER HIGH, WITH PWATS OF
150-175 PERCENT OF NORMAL CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN REGION. REGIONAL
RADARS ARE INDICATING A FEW DIMINISHING SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
THE EASTERN ARIZONA. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS, WHICH IS HELPING TO KEEP MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AT
THIS TIME, WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT, AS MODELS KEEP THE
UPPER HIGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH KEEPS WEAK, MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS, ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWATS WITHIN THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW, AND
STRONG SUMMER SOLAR HEATING, WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT PLAINS, THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEFORE DIMINISHING
AND ENDING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS
REMAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD, WHERE SLOW MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE
TO POSE A FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR THE WILLOW BURN AREA, AND OTHER
SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS SUCH AS THE CHALK CLIFFS AND PONCHA PASS. WITH
THE MOISTURE IN PLACE, CAN'T RULE OUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING WITH ALL STORMS TODAY AS WELL.
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AGAIN
TODAY, WITH LIKELY THE WARMEST READINGS OF THE WEEK EXPECTED ACROSS
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 90S THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THEN TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO 109F,
WARMEST ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THROUGH 9 PM FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW RECORDS FALL TODAY, WITH CURRENT
RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 26TH BEING 91F FOR ALS IN 2023, 97F
FOR COS IN 1953, AND 103F FOR PUB IN 2023.
CLOUDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAYS
READINGS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND
MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
FOR MONDAY, LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH AND
MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP HOT TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. HOWEVER, SURFACE REFLECTION OF THERMAL TROUGH
SENDS A NORTHERLY SURGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE MORNING, AND DEVELOPING SURFACE UPSLOPE ACROSS THE
MTN/PLAINS INTERFACE WILL LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF CLOUDS AND
AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO FOR
NOW, WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT GET A BETTER HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES
AND THE NEED FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY. OTHERWISE, WITH
THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE, WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE A
GOOD COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NEW BURN
AREAS.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK, THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS
PROGGED TO BUILD SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
LOOKS TO CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW COOLING TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES AT
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE CONTINUED WETTER TREND REMAINS AREAWIDE, AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITHIN DEVELOPING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST COVERAGE OF DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL REMAIN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH PERIOD,
THOUGH, THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK, WITH
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
LATEST LONGER TERM MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA DO INDICATE DRIER AIR
WORKING BACK INTO THE ROCKIES INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
IS PUSHED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
DRIER SIDE AND LESS EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS. KPUB AND KCOS WILL SEE
MORE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 10-15
KTS BEHIND A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WHICH MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CARRY VCSH FOR
NOW AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL BETTER CONFIDENCE IS GAINED ON -TSRA
POTENTIAL. THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO BEGIN AFTER 22Z FOR KCOS
AND AFTER 00 OR 01Z AT KPUB. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT WILL TRY TO TIME THE WIND SHIFTS IN PREVAILING
GROUPS FOR NOW. KALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR -TSRA AND
HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR COZ083>086-089-093-095>099.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page