977
FXUS65 KPUB 261907
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
107 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HOT WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON PLAINS.
- SCATTERED STORMS IN MTNS, ISOLD I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS REGION-WIDE TUE AND WED.
- NOT AS HOT LATER THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
REST OF TODAY....
VERY HOT. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS. READING IN THE 90S TO MID 100S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
104 TO 110 OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
AS FOR PRECIP, MOISTURE PLUME IS OVER THE STATE, AND STORMS ARE
ONGOING AS I WRITE ALONG THE CONTDVD, WITH VERY ISOLATED STORMS
ELSEWHERE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATER TODAY, MOST NUMEROUS STORMS
WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS, SO CHALK BLUFFS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CAREFULLY. MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE MAY SEE SOME STORMS
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EL PASO COUNTY AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. A RATHER LARGE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION THIS
EVENING, AND THIS WILL HOPEFULLY COOL THINGS DOWN OVER THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
TOMORROW...
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE. ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. I HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS FOR TOMORROW.
ONE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE FOR TOMORROW IS THERE WILL BE A MUCH BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS TO MOVE FARTHER EAST, WITH THE ACTIVITY REACHING
OUT ONTO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, WE WILL HAVE A BETTER THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING OVER
THE ASPEN ACRES (AA) BURN SCAR TOMORROW. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS HAVE SOME RATHER HIGH QPF OVER THE AA BURN SCAR
AREA TOMORROW, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NDFD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
A WEEK BOUNDARY PUSHES DOWN THE PLAINS, AND THE HEAT DOME PUSHES A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, IT WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THIS DAY AS 700 MB TEMPS COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES. SINCE THE
PLUME IS OVER US ANY STORM ON THIS DAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.
FOR WEDNESDAY, A WEAK WAVE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN IT
SOMEWHAT A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL ASSIST WITH STORM
COVERAGE THIS DAY. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER PRECIP OVER THE MTNS
AND I-25 CORRIDOR REGIONS ON THIS DAY, ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY REACH DOWN TO SEASONABLE
VALUES THIS DAY ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE RATHER HUMID BY COLORADO
STANDARDS.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, RIDGE TRIES TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION SO
STORM POTENTIAL ON THE PLAINS WILL LESSEN AND TEMPS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY INCREASE UPWARD ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL STILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATIONS OF AFTERNOON STORMS OVER THE MTNS.
HOPEFULLY THE LONG RANGE PRODUCTS VERIFY FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE HEAT
DOME IS FCST TO FLATTEN OUT AND WE MAY ACTUALLY GET SOME COOLER AIR
DOWN THIS WAY. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL OF THE 3 TAF
SITES (KPUB, KALS, KCOS)FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. OVERALL, EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOURS PERIOD, BUT
CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ083>086-089-
093-095>099.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ083>086-089-
093-095>099.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH
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