806
FXUS65 KPUB 280508
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1108 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN CHANCES (SOME HEAVY) INCREASING BETWEEN NOW
AND LATE WEDNESDAY AS MONSOON PLUME SHUNTED EASTWARD.
- CONTINUED HOT, BUT NOT AS HOT AS YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...
ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY OVER THE REGION IS ANTICIPATED AS MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN GOING TO GET AT OR ABOVE 100F ACROSS MOST
OF THE PLAINS. MANY AREAS OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS 105
OR HOTTER. THE GOOD NEWS IS THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THIS RECORD
BREAKING HEAT AS THE MONSOON PLUME IS BEING SHUNTED EASTWARD AND A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO EVENTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SCATTERED STORMS TO MOVE/DEVELOP ON THE PLAINS AND MOVE
EASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING. THE STORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE WIDESPREAD, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE CONVECTION OVER THE
PLANS THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE.
WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH AND THE PRECIP
ACTIVITY, IT WILL LIKELY GET BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF
THE PLAINS THIS EVENING, WITH NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS PREVAILING.
IN THE MEANTIME, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS ALWAYS, IF A STRONG
STORM DEVELOPS IN A FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREA, THEN FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY OVER THE ASPEN ACRES (AA) BURN AREA).
TOMORROW, IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY HOT BUT THERE WILL BE A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF THE REGION.
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE
PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST, AND (WEAK) SYNOPTICALLY EVIDENT SHORT
WAVES, THERE LIKELY WILL SOME THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING QPF MAXIMUMS IN AND AROUND THE AA BURN
AREA AND THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO BE CAREFULLY WATCHED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE PLAINS (AND POSSIBLY THE MTNS). THIS
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPS OF UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S WILL PREVAIL OVER THE PLAINS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TUESDAY, WITH
NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN,
OVER ALL OF THE REGION. QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS A BETTER CHANCE OF
HEAVIER PRECIP OVER A GOOD PART OF THE REGION AS COMPARED TO
TUESDAY. FLASH FLOODING THREAT MAY BE EXACERBATED ON WEDNESDAY IF
FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS SEE HEAVY RAIN ON TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...
SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM UP A
BIT WITH 90S TO L100S OVER THE PLAINS.
FRIDAY...
SIMILAR TEMPS TO THURSDAY, BUT LESS POPS REGIONWIDE.
WEEKEND...
DRIER AND HOT, BUT NOT AS HOT AS TODAY OR YESTERDAY.
LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
CANADIAN FRONT TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT TUESDAY-
ISH. BOTH EC AND GFS SHOW THIS SOLUTION, BUT GFS IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WHILE EC HAS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW. LETS HOPE!
\/HODANISH
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
KCOS, KPUB, AND KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ANY ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND THE TAF SITES EARLY
DURING THIS TAF PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE HEADING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THE
MORNING. WITH THAT SAID, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR KCOS AND KPUB. ANY
THUNDERSTORM DURING THIS TAF PERIOD MAY BRING PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. OTHERWISE, MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THIS TAF
PERIOD, WITH WINDS ALSO REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCE, AROUND AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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