592
FXUS65 KPUB 281726
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1126 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABUNDANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN BRINGING INCREASED
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREA BURN SCARS, ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL.
- TEMPERATURES AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 157 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE UPPER HIGH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, WITH MODEST
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO HAS A WEAK EMBEDDED
WAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH GOES BLENDED
TOTAL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING PWATS RUNNING BETWEEN 120-150
PERCENT OF NORMAL (1 TO 1.40 INCHES) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO, WITH MORE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH
AND EAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN AT THIS
TIME. SAID EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IS AIDING IN ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS TIME.
LATEST MODEL DATA KEEPS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITHIN CONTINUED
MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY, WITH ANOTHER
EMBEDDED WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN, EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
THROUGH THE FLOW THROUGH THE EVENING. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE, COMBINED
WITH STRONG SOLAR HEATING, UVV FROM THE PASSING WAVE, AND EASTERLY
UPSLOPE ACROSS THE PLAINS, WILL DEVELOP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING, WITH STORMS PUSHING EAST INTO A MORE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS, AND WITH
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTNS, WE HAVE ISSUED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ASPEN ACRES BURN AREA FROM NOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THE MODEST WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP STORMS MOVING TODAY,
HOWEVER, WITH VERY JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE, WILL ALSO SEE HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WHERE THE
LATEST WPC EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT RISK. ALSO, CAN NOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW AND MODEST SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. MAIN THREATS, OTHER THAN THE
HEAVY RAIN, WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH AND HAIL GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH IN DIAMETER. STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FREQUENT OF
LIGHTNING AS WELL, HOWEVER, THE RAIN WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH TO
QUELL FIRE STARTS. CONVECTION DIMINISHES AND ENDS WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING, PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND EXPECTED EARLY CONVECTION,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WITH 60S, 70S AND 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE COOLER AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
A SIMILAR SET UP REMAINS FOR WEDNESDAY, AS AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE, ALONG WITH ANOTHER PROGGED WAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE
MODEST WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
PUSH OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY NEED
ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ASPEN ACRES BURN AREA AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY, AND DEPENDING ON MUCH RAIN FALLS TODAY, THERE COULD
BE THE POTENTIAL TO EXPAND WATCHES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LONGER TERM MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRIER AIR
WORKING BACK INTO THE ROCKIES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN REGION, BRINGING MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT INTO THE ROCKIES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE DRIER SIDE AND LESS EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. TEMPERATURES WILL START
TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE ROCKIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS AS LOWER CIGS
AND ESPECIALLY VIS WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED AS THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY PRECIP REDUCING THE VIS. STRONG GUST WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN ROUGHLY AROUND
22 UTC AND LAST UNTIL ABOUT 04 UTC. VFR THEREAFTER.
WILL LIKELY REFINE TAFS ONCE THE CONVECTION INITIATES AND GETS
CLOSER TO THE TAF SITES.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ079-080-086.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH
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