572
FXUS65 KPUB 290704
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
104 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS EVENING, INITIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS; FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
HAVE BEEN ISSUE.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND.
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH THE
PLAINS BACK INTO THE 100 DEGREE RANGE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2026
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW AN UPPER
HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO, WITH AN UPPER WAVE DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS HAS LED TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AND LIKELY WILL NOT FALL MUCH THROUGH
DAYBREAK, AS DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE PLAINS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SIT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT UPPER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S, WITH STEADY SOUTHEAST
FLOW KEEPING MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS THE PLAINS. PWAT VALUES
REMAIN ELEVATED AS WELL, WITH VALUES IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.
SHEAR REMAIN WEAK WITH 0-6 KM VALUES AROUND 20 KTS, AND SBCAPE
VALUES MAINLY IN THE 900-1200 J/KG RANGE. WITH THE UPPER WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION, EXPECTED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. AT THIS TIME, THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE,
WITH LIGHTING, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 45 MPH AND HALF INCH
HAIL ALL POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
HOW EFFICIENT THE CELLS WILL BE AT PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR REMAINS IN PLACE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE I-2 CORRIDOR, NORTHEAST INTO KIOWA COUNTY. THESE
AREAS SAW POCKETS OF 1-2+ INCH RAINFALL ON TUESDAY, AND
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
IN AREA THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN ON TUESDAY. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN
ARE LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS THAT FLOOD EASILY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, CLEARING EAST INTO KANSAS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND 80S ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
OVERNIGHT HOWS WILL REMAIN MILD, WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS,
AND 50S FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2026
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH DIFFERENCE ARISING BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT BY THE WEEKEND AND HEAT UP.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SIT ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THURSDAY, AND BEGIN GRADUALLY MIGRATING WESTWARD
ON FRIDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER TWO DAYS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
INITIATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. PWAT VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED, AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS ELEVATED ACROSS THE
PLAINS. SHEAR REMAIN WEAK DURING THIS PERIOD, WHICH WILL HELP
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS SUB-SEVERE, HOWEVER, A FEW MAY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BOTH DAYS, ESPECIALLY ON THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR. DO NOT LET
YOUR GUARD DOWN IF YOU ARE IN OR NEAR THE BURN SCAR THROUGH
FRIDAY! TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT ON THURSDAY WITH 90S TO A FEW
LOWER 100S ON THE PLAINS, WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SEES 80S. A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY, WITH A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING, BUT
WILL STILL BE HOT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, CLEARING
THE STATE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OT RETROGRADE
WEST OVER THE WEEKEND, WHILE AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PWAT VALUES REALLY
DRY OUT OVER THE WEEKEND, TO NEAR 0.5 TO 0.8 INCHES. THIS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH 90S ACROSS
THE PLAINS SATURDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 100S SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE DRIER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING WILL
BE OF CONCERN ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. WITH PWAT VALUES
COMING DOWN, PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY ALSO DIMINISHES. BURN
SCARS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS DIVERGE FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A RETURN OF ELEVATED
MOISTURE AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST GUIDANCE AGREES, A COLD FRONT
FROM THE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH ARRIVING ON TUESDAY, WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL SLIGHTLY WITH MOSTLY 90S FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KCOS, KPUB, AND KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WITH THAT SAID THOUGH, HEAVY MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
MAY BRING PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL THREE TAF SITES
AS VISIBILITY QUICKLY DROPS IN HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION, THESE STORMS
MAY BRING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS UP TOT AROUND 35 KNOTS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, THE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT, AROUND AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, WITH POCKETS OF MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ074>078-081>085-087>089-093>096.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ079-080-086.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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