023
FXUS65 KPUB 311731
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1131 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN MOUNTAINS,
WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ON THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR.
- DRIER AND HOTTER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES.
- THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT
WEEK, WITH BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
CURRENTLY...RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH 4 AM,
DISSIPATING AS THEY DO SO. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF
RAINFALL AND ONE OR TWO LIGHTNING STRIKES. MEANWHILE, A COLD
FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE, WITH WINDS
SWITCHING NORTHERLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD, WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 50S OVER THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY RETORGRADES WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE,
FLOW WILL SHIFT EASTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL HELP KEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO POSSIBLY
LOWER 60S. PWAT VALUES REMAIN HIGH, IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SHEAR INCREASES AS WELL, WITH 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 30
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, AND SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE RATON MESA. THE STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CELLS GENERALLY ALONG THIS PATH, WITH TRAINING
ECHOES INTO THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS AND FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON BURN SCARS, WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING, HAIL TO NEAR HALF AN INCH AND WIND GUSTS
NEAR 50 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR, AND WAST
EXTENDED THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN ARE THE
MULTIPLE WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE NAMNEST AND HRRR
GUIDANCE KEEPING CELLS TRAINING THROUGH 9-10 PM OVER ASPEN
ACRES. IF YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE BURN SCAR, BE PREPARED FOR
FLASH FLOOD CONDITIONS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO
NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT, CLEARING TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING.
OVERALL, GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW, AREAS EAST OF I-25 MAY NOT
RECEIVE MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS, WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
SEES UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS ON TRACK, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, WITH VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL BRING
MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SOUTHERN COLORADO FOR MID WEEK.
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL RETROGRADE
SOUTHWEST INTO ARIZONA ON SATURDAY, BEFORE AN UPPER TROUGH IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STRETCHES A RIDGE FROM ARIZONA, NORTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ONE LAST EMBEDDED UPPER WAVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS COLORADO ON SATURDAY, WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOOKS MINIMAL ON
SATURDAY, MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SAN JUAN AND SOUTHERN SANGRE
DE CRISTO RANGES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CURRENT
CAM GUIDANCE KEEPS A LOW END RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH. ANY CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP ON OR
NEAR THE BURN SCAR COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS OCCURING AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO BY THE EVENING, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOOK
WARM, WITH 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRETCH ACROSS
COLORADO AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS COLORADO, AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, WITH JUST ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST
ISSUE, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOWER 100S SUNDAY, AND THE WARMEST DAY FORECAST ON MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME, HEAT HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD WITH 60S AND 70S.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND PRODUCING PERSISTENT WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
PWAT VALUES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TO IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH ON
TUESDAY, AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR AREA BURN SCARS LOOKS TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY. VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS
PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES, AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO REBUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES. MULTIPLE WAVES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND
NOON AND MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD, POSSIBLY AFFECTING KALS,
KCOS AND KPUB IN THE 20Z-03Z TIMEFRAME. VFR CIGS AND BRIEF MVFR
VIS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS IF STORMS
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40-50
KTS COULD ALSO OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS ALONG WITH SMALL
HAIL. ODDS OF A DIRECT IMPACT ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM, SO PROB30 WAS MAINTAINED FOR GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35 KTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE DOMINATED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTIONS FOR
KCOS AND KPUB...AND EASTERLY DIRECTIONS FOR KALS. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH WINDS SETTLING INTO DIURNAL PATTERNS
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
-KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ079-080-
086.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT
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