552
FXUS65 KPUB 311909
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
109 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL ON THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING AND EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES
FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- FIRST ROUND OF HEAT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON MONDAY.
- FRONT FOR TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND BURN SCAR FLASH
FLOODING FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WILL PUT CO UNDER NORTHWEST ALOFT
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH A LITTLE BETTER
DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORM
STRENGTHS. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS, INITIALLY PEAKING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME REGENERATION ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION/PARK COUNTY AROUND 8 PM WHICH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. AS STATED EARLIER, REPEATED
ROUNDS OF STORMS COULD LEAD TO TRAINING STORMS FOR THE VULNERABLE
BURN SCAR AREAS WHICH IS ONE NUDGING FACTOR FOR PUTTING UP A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
SHOULD KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE 50S BANKED UP AGAINST THE LOWER
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS, WITH SURFACE HEATING
RESULTING IN CAPES OF UP TO 1500 J/KG, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AS WELL AS SOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GREATEST CONCERN
THOUGH WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE ASPEN ACRES BURN
SCAR. CURRENT WATCH GOES UNTIL 11 PM AND WILL MAINTAIN. 12Z NAMNEST
SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH 2 AM,
BUT IT IS THE OUTLIER IN THIS LATER TIMING, AND WILL MAINTAIN WATCH
DURATION AS IS. EXTENSIONS CAN BE MADE AS BETTER CLARITY IS GAINED.
IF THIS LATER ROUND DOES OCCUR, IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS BEING FORCED BY
SOME WEAK ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
IT IS LIKELY THAT STORM STRENGTHS WILL BE WEAKER WITH THIS FINAL
ROUND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERCOLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GRADUAL CLEARING TOWARDS MORNING. DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY CUTTING BACK THE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. DEW POINTS OUT WEST AND IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S AND 30S. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WITH A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE TOWARDS THE NM
BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT THE RISK FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING
LOOKS CONSIDERABLY LOWER AND NO FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
THAN TODAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS ANTICIPATED TO CREST OVER 100 ONCE
AGAIN. HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE URBAN AREAS OF THE
I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S PUT
IT INTO THE HIGHER END OF THE HEAT IMPACT LEVELS. THERE COULD STILL
BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, BUT
THESE WILL BE HIGHER BASED WITH MORE OF A GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND
POTENTIAL, AND ONLY SPOTTY MODERATE RAINFALL. MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR
BUT A FEW DEGREES HOTTER AND IT IS LIKELY THAT MORE HEAT ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEEDED OVER A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS HONE DOWN THAT AREA AS WE GET CLOSER. HIGHS
UP TO 106 WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
A COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND PLAINS DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS BACK
WESTWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ON ASPEN
ACRES.
AFTER A COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM AGAIN,
BUT THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES BRINGING EPISODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE AREA MOST DAYS. MAIN MONSOON TAP LOOKS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
SO MOISTURE QUALITY DOESN'T LOOKS AS HIGH AS IT WAS THIS WEEK.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN AROUND TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SO THE SIGNAL FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING LOOKS
MINIMAL FOR THE TIME BEING. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE REBOUNDING
BACK TOWARDS THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE WEEK.
-KT
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND
NOON AND MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD, POSSIBLY AFFECTING KALS,
KCOS AND KPUB IN THE 20Z-03Z TIMEFRAME. VFR CIGS AND BRIEF MVFR
VIS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS IF STORMS
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40-50
KTS COULD ALSO OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS ALONG WITH SMALL
HAIL. ODDS OF A DIRECT IMPACT ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM, SO PROB30 WAS MAINTAINED FOR GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35 KTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE DOMINATED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTIONS FOR
KCOS AND KPUB...AND EASTERLY DIRECTIONS FOR KALS. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH WINDS SETTLING INTO DIURNAL PATTERNS
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
-KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ079-080-
086.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ083>086.
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...KT
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